Weather metaphors are often used (and overused) in election analysis, but there’s a better way to describe the Republicans’ challenge in 2018. The GOP is dealing with many headaches as it tries to preserve the Republican congressional majorities. From tension to cluster to migraine, they can vary in frequency and […] Read more »
What’s Behind Democrats’ Shrinking Senate Odds?
Republicans’ chances of keeping the Senate are up to about a 4 in 5 (79 percent), according to the “Classic” version of the FiveThirtyEight forecast. Republicans have always been favored to hold the Senate, but that’s nevertheless a meaningful improvement from recent weeks, when their odds were generally hovering between […] Read more »
The GOP Civil War: The Kavanaugh Confirmation & John McCain
President Donald Trump has chosen to crudely heat up the culture war to get his base to erase the Democratic advantage heading into the midterms. The President, Brett Kavanaugh, and most Senate Republicans have made white men a victim of a dominant PC culture giving greater claims to women and […] Read more »
Beware Kavanaugh Narratives, Final-Month Musings Unlikely to Change November Outcomes
… President Trump certainly is trying to use wedge issues to energize his supporters, and there may well be an uptick in GOP enthusiasm after the recent Supreme Court fight. But, based on the past, I’m skeptical the Kavanaugh fight will fundamentally change next month’s outcomes. Republicans won the Kavanaugh […] Read more »
CNN poll: Democrats are fired up and maintain a strong 2018 lead
Four weeks out from Election Day, Democrats remain well ahead of Republicans in a generic ballot matchup, with 54% of likely voters saying they support the Democrat in their district and 41% backing a Republican, according to a CNN poll conducted by SSRS. This is the widest margin of support […] Read more »
How Crazy Is It That The Senate and House Might Move In Opposite Directions This Year?
For President Trump and the GOP, the 2018 midterms are shaping up to be a tale of two chambers. In the U.S. House, Republicans look like they’ll lose seats — and maybe even their majority. But the U.S. Senate is a different story. FiveThirtyEight’s Classic forecast shows essentially no change […] Read more »