For President Trump and the GOP, the 2018 midterms are shaping up to be a tale of two chambers. In the U.S. House, Republicans look like they’ll lose seats — and maybe even their majority. But the U.S. Senate is a different story. FiveThirtyEight’s Classic forecast shows essentially no change in seats as the most likely outcome, and gives the GOP about a 7 in 9 chance of maintaining control. In fact, we currently give Republicans almost a 50 percent shot of gaining at least one seat.
This is an unusual position for the presidential party in a midterm election. But it’s not unprecedented. CONT.
Geoffrey Skelley, FiveThirtyEight