The most dramatic change over the last six weeks in the midterm election picture is clearly in the Senate, but the House situation has subtly changed as well. Not long ago, the most likely outcome for the Senate was either no net change at all, or a shift of one […] Read more »
A Referendum on Trump or Pelosi?
At the beginning of this cycle, I had conversations with strategists on both sides about the challenges for each party going into 2018. Democrats were worried that Trump had his own ‘brand’ that would make it hard to try and link GOP candidates to the unorthodox and unconventional president. Trying […] Read more »
How Democrats could win back the House on health care, in 4 polls
Health care was arguably the issue that cost Democrats control of Congress back in 2010. But eight years later, evidence is piling up that health care could help Democrats retake the House majority for the first time since then. … So how did this political transition on health care come […] Read more »
Poll finds Trump’s pro-Israel stance does not sway US Jews
President Donald Trump’s pro-Israel positions have not garnered him support from American Jewish voters, according to a new survey. The poll found that 74 percent of Jews planned to vote for Democratic candidates in November’s midterm elections. The figure corresponds with similar voting patterns in past elections. CONT. Isabel DeBre, […] Read more »
The Drive for 25: An updated seat-by-seat analysis of the House
For all the talk of the House generic ballot, President Trump’s approval rating, and other big-picture factors that point to the overall direction of the fight for the House, the battle for the majority comes down to a district-by-district slog. And it is a district-by-district assessment that shows the Democratic […] Read more »
The 2018 Midterms Are All About Trump
In its final stages, the tumultuous 2018 midterm election appears to be moving in contradictory directions, with Democrats and Republicans alike finding legitimate reasons for optimism amid the daily flurry of new polls. But these seemingly disparate signals actually represent a mirror image of the same powerful force: a tightening […] Read more »