Democratic hopes for a wave election next month that would carry them to a significant House majority have been tempered in recent weeks amid a shifting political landscape and a torrent of hard-hitting attack ads from Republicans. … To galvanize their voters, Republicans are airing attack ads that argue Democrats […] Read more »
Republicans could keep the House. Here’s how.
… The forecast that I created with Parker Quinn and Brice Acree currently gives Democrats a 226 to Republicans 209 edge after the midterm elections. Yet, it’s not as if all hope is lost for Republicans at this point. Indeed, I would point out that it’s important to watch the […] Read more »
Nine kinds of races that will decide the fate of the House
With 18 days until Election Day, Democrats are the clear favorites to take the House, thanks to President Donald Trump’s poor approval ratings, a historic number of GOP open seats and record-shattering Democratic fundraising. But it’s not a done deal yet. Roughly a sixth of America will decide the House. […] Read more »
Republicans Have a Latino Problem
Donald Trump’s improbable victory and controversial presidency have made the upcoming mid-term elections one of the most closely watched congressional contests in recent times. As Election Day draws near, a plethora of pundits are offering both dire and optimistic forecasts about the Democrat’s chances of retaking the House and Senate. […] Read more »
Senate And Governor Races Are Diverging Sharply In Some States
More and more Americans vote for the same party up and down the ballot these days. But some people still split their tickets. Who? Where? Well, we can use our forecast data to try to answer that. There are 22 states holding multiple statewide races this year — meaning a […] Read more »
For a Change, Democrats Seem Set to Equal or Exceed Republicans in Turnout
A wide range of evidence indicates that Democratic voters are poised to vote in numbers unseen in a midterm election in at least a decade. Democrats have largely erased the turnout deficit that hobbled them during the Obama presidency, according to results from more than 50 New York Times Upshot/Siena […] Read more »