For all the talk of the House generic ballot, President Trump’s approval rating, and other big-picture factors that point to the overall direction of the fight for the House, the battle for the majority comes down to a district-by-district slog.
And it is a district-by-district assessment that shows the Democratic path to the House majority — and the remaining avenues for Republicans to block it.
We have previously described Democrats as being “soft favorites” in the race for the House, and that’s basically where we’re still at. As this roadmap hopefully will demonstrate, Democrats may yet blow open the battle for the House and win the majority comfortably. But there are paths for the Republicans to hold on as well, and a Democratic House majority is not yet written in stone. CONT.
Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball