… For those of you hoping the 2018 midterms will end on Election Day, I have some bad news: It’s possible that we go into overtime. I’m not just talking recounts. I’m talking about runoff elections in Georgia and Mississippi. CONT. Harry Enten, CNN Read more »
Florida Governor’s Race: Andrew Gillum and Ron DeSantis
Florida. Its close elections are legendary. And this year, the governor’s race may be no exception. After an upset victory in a crowded primary field, the Democrat Andrew Gillum is running on an unapologetically progressive platform. Ron DeSantis, the Republican, is a strong supporter of President Trump. It’s a race of political […] Read more »
This election is a direct referendum on Donald Trump. The strong economy proves it.
For months now, the US economy has been roaring. The latest evidence? The October jobs report — 250,000 jobs added, 3.7% unemployment rate and wage growth at 3.1%. … Yet, with just four days left before the 2018 midterms, conventional wisdom is that Republicans will lose the House majority they’ve […] Read more »
2018 House Race Stability
Despite the onslaught of major news events, the Monmouth University Poll finds the race for control of the House of Representatives does not look much different in October than it did over the summer. Aggregated analysis of previously released polls in seven competitive districts finds that the underlying dynamics in […] Read more »
Sorry, pundits, but you have no clue what will happen on Tuesday
… Polls remain our best tool for reading the electorate and discerning important trends, which is why journalists, handicappers, and campaign managers depend on them so much. Entire media companies are devoted to explaining them. But polls are not predictive. They are wobbly around the margins. Pollsters, the honest ones […] Read more »
Senate: Four More Days! Four More Days! Four More Days!
The waning days of any election cycle are always the hardest as there is little more left for the political world to do but speculate and traffic in gossip. Nearly every conversation begins with, “So I heard …”. This cycle has been no exception, but the final days have been […] Read more »