Why We’re Headed for Huge Turnout

A week before the midterm elections, both parties are filled with anxiety. Like football wide receivers who have been blind-sided one time too many, many Democrats are hearing real or imaginary footsteps—residual trauma from the 2016 election, when they thought things were going so well until they didn’t. Similarly mindful […] Read more »

Voters Using Midterms to Send Trump a Message

Sixty percent of registered voters, the highest in recent midterm elections, say they are using their vote this year to send a message about the president. More say they are signaling their opposition to President Donald Trump (34%) than their support for him (26%), marking the fourth consecutive midterm election […] Read more »

As Midterm Vote Nears, Trump Reprises a Favorite Message: Fear Immigrants

President Trump’s closing argument is now clear: Build tent cities for migrants. End birthright citizenship. Fear the caravan. Send active-duty troops to the border. Refuse asylum. Immigration has been the animating issue of the Trump presidency, and now — with the possibility that Republicans could face significant losses in the […] Read more »

Trump’s Nationalism Is Breaking Point for Some Suburban Voters, Risking G.O.P. Coalition

Two years ago, the presidential election hinged in large part on a rightward shift among working-class whites who deserted Democrats. Tuesday’s House election may turn on an equally significant and opposite force: a generational break with the Republican Party among educated, wealthier whites — especially women — who like the […] Read more »

Democrats Can Get Close To A House Majority With Suburban Seats Alone

This entire election cycle we’ve heard (and even written) that the Democrats’ path to a House majority may lie in the suburbs. Although that summary is a bit simplistic because of the breadth of the House battlefield, an analysis of a recent article from CityLab and FiveThirtyEight’s House forecast suggest […] Read more »