Opportunity and necessity alike are pushing Democrats to focus more intently on gaining ground across the Sun Belt in next week’s election, from Florida and Georgia in the Southeast to Nevada and Arizona in the Southwest. The opportunity comes from changing demographics: with their young, diverse populations and in most […] Read more »
Trump’s unpopularity and broad gap in trust to handle health care keep Democrats in the hunt to take control of Congress
President Trump’s unpopularity and a broad gap in trust to handle health care are keeping Democrats in the hunt to take control of Congress, but with an advantage that’s narrowed from its summertime peak. … With Trump pushing to turn out his core support groups, the election stands more than […] Read more »
Democrats lead in House preferences, but positive views of the economy and concern about border security may buoy Republicans
Heading into Tuesday’s critical midterm elections, Democrats retain their advantage in the battle for the House, but Republicans could be buoyed by increasingly positive assessments of the economy and by President Trump’s harsh focus on the issues of immigration and border security, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News national […] Read more »
Republicans Need A Systematic Polling Error To Win The House
As I wrote earlier this week, Democrats almost certainly need a systematic polling error to win the Senate. By that I mean: They need for the polls to be off everywhere, or at least in certain key clusters of states, to win the Senate. … What might be more surprising […] Read more »
Role Of Polls During The Election Season
Midterm elections are always a little tricky for pollsters. What do polls about national issues and inclinations mean when control the House and Senate will be decided district by district and state by state? But this time around, there’s even less data and fewer polls to analyze. NPR’s Domenico Montanaro […] Read more »
How polling has changed since the 2016 election
Democratic Congressional candidates now hold a nine-point advantage over Republicans, according to the latest poll from the PBS NewsHour, NPR and Marist. But can polls be trusted? In 2016, polls in key states showed Hillary Clinton winning handily. Donald Trump won all three. Judy Woodruff discusses with NPR’s Domenico Montanaro […] Read more »