The midterm election is starting to break against Donald Trump and the Republican Party in profound ways and running on the economy and the new tax cut helps further solidify advantages for Democrats.This is according to a new AFT-Democracy Corps national phone poll and deep focus group research on the […] Read more »
Can a President Preaching Change Lead a Party of Incumbents?
I have long argued that on the most fundamental level, all elections are choices between continuity and change. The “in” party needs voters to believe that things are going well — or at least improving — while the “out” party needs to sell its message of change. On rare occasions, […] Read more »
Democratic control of Congress preferred 69%-28%, Harvard youth poll finds
… A new national poll of America’s 18- to 29-year-olds by Harvard’s Institute of Politics (IOP), located at the Kennedy School of Government, finds a marked increase in the number of young Americans who indicate that they will “definitely be voting” in the upcoming midterm Congressional elections. Overall, 37 percent […] Read more »
Trade war threatens the GOP’s firewall in 2018
… The GOP’s dominance of small-town and rural America has become the indisputable geographic foundation of its power in Washington. And the party is counting on continued strength in those areas to contain its losses this fall, particularly after the repeated indications in a number of special and local elections […] Read more »
Rick Scott is the toughest challenger Bill Nelson has faced for Florida Senate, but Nelson’s still a slight favorite
The US Senate race in the key swing state of Florida just got a lot more exciting when Republican Gov. Rick Scott announced that he is running. Scott is not expected to face any major primary competition in his bid to take on Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson. … Scott has […] Read more »
As elections near, many older, educated, white voters shift away from Trump’s party
Older, white, educated voters helped Donald Trump win the White House in 2016. Now, they are trending toward Democrats in such numbers that their ballots could tip the scales in tight congressional races from New Jersey to California, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll and a data analysis of competitive districts shows. […] Read more »