Here are my best estimates. The Presidential and House races are a near-replica of 2012. Four Senate races are within one percentage point. Partisans in Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, and North Carolina may want to lawyer up for possible recount battles. CONT. Sam Wang, Princeton Election Consortium Read more »
Senate Update: The Generic Ballot Is Hurting Democrats’ Chances
Our Senate forecasts — both polls-only and poll-plus — tipped toward Republicans late Monday, giving them about a 51 percent chance of maintaining their majority. While that technically makes the GOP a slight favorite, the fight for Senate control remains basically a coin flip. Still, our Senate forecasts have been […] Read more »
One Day Left: Counties to Watch
The Wall Street Journal’s ‘data guru’ Dante Chinni joins Chuck Todd to discuss the deepening fault lines along racial, educational and economic lines and outlines which key counties could decide the outcome of the election. Meet the Press Daily, NBC News Read more »
Are There Really Hidden Trump Voters?
Hillary Clinton is favored to become the next president of the United States. Yet many in Donald J. Trump’s camp remain undaunted, arguing that hidden supporters will carry him to the White House. As the polls have narrowed in the last few days, the question of whether pollsters could be […] Read more »
How to Begin the Healing
The greatest country in the history of civilization has become dangerously uncivilized. We’re living through the “Thelma and Louise” election, and it doesn’t work out in the end. For months, both candidates have been headed toward the electoral cliff of division and discord — fueled by an electorate seething with […] Read more »
Clinton Gains, And The Polls Magically Converge
First things first: Hillary Clinton has a 70 percent chance of winning the election, according to both the FiveThirtyEight polls-only and polls-plus models. That’s up from a 65 percent chance on Sunday night, so Clinton has had a good run in the polls in the final days of the campaign. […] Read more »