The political landscape was ripe this year for a credible Republican alternative to Democrat Hillary Clinton. But that never meant that merely any alternative would do. Donald Trump failed to pass the smell test among general-election voters. Even if they had doubts about Clinton, they often had even greater doubts […] Read more »
Final PollyVote forecast: Clinton will win
All numbers are in and, according to the PollyVote, Hillary Clinton will become the first female president of the United States. Clinton will win the popular vote by 5.0 percentage points in the two-party vote (52.5% vs. 47.5%). Based on the PollyVote’s historical error, Clinton’s chance to win is above […] Read more »
30% of Trump supporters say they’ll protest the election if he loses
After the votes are counted Tuesday night, how will Americans react if their candidate loses? Speculation abounds. Our recent surveys indicate that supporters of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will respond differently, with Trump voters more likely to say they would protest the legitimacy of the election and encourage lawmakers […] Read more »
Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
Throughout the election, our forecast models have consistently come to two conclusions. First, that Hillary Clinton was more likely than not to become the next president. And second, that the range of possible Electoral College outcomes — including the chance of a Donald Trump victory, but also a Clinton landslide […] Read more »
Has the Balance of Power Shifted From the Rustbelt to the Sunbelt?
Since the photo-finish 2000 presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore that introduced the United States to the red-and-blue political map, the struggle between the parties for 270 Electoral College votes has resembled trench warfare. With most states locked down for one party or the other, both sides […] Read more »
Final IBD-TIPP Poll: Trump Holds 2-Point Lead Over Clinton As Election Day Arrives
As voters go to the actual polls to cast their ballots in what has been an unprecedented presidential election, Republican Donald Trump held onto a 2-point lead over his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton — 45% to 43% — in a four-way matchup, according to the final IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll. […] Read more »