… Despite some wobbles along the way, we’ve favored Hillary Clinton as the 45th president of the United States ever since we did our first handicapping of the Clinton vs. Donald Trump matchup back in late March. The edge we had for her back then has eroded a little bit […] Read more »
Election Update T-1: Clinton is 89 percent to be the next president
Clinton is 89 percent to be the next president, with Trump at 11 percent. Democrats are now 66 percent to take the Senate and 6 percent to take the House. Below is the joint probability of the different parties controlling the president, senate, and house: CONT. David Rothschild, PredictWise Read more »
Latino Voter Wall Blocks Trump’s Path to White House
Latino voters are about to play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the 2016 presidential election. The latest Latino Decisions polls show that Republican presidential nominee Trump is losing the Latino vote across the country, including in the battleground states of Nevada (where 17.2 percent of the eligible […] Read more »
Trump and Clinton Finish With Historically Poor Images
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton head into the final hours of the 2016 presidential campaign with the worst election-eve images of any major-party presidential candidates Gallup has measured back to 1956. Majorities of Americans now view each of them unfavorably on a 10-point favorability scale, a first for any presidential […] Read more »
Post-ABC Tracking Poll: Clinton 47, Trump 43 on election eve
Hillary Clinton maintains a narrow four-point advantage over Donald Trump in the Washington Post-ABC News Tracking Poll, with the Democrat holding key advantages on election eve even as pockets of uncertainty persist. The poll, which finds 47 percent of likely voters support Clinton while 43 percent support, with Gary Johnson […] Read more »
CBS News poll: State of the race the day before Election Day
With just one day left in the 2016 presidential race, Hillary Clinton holds a four-point lead over Donald Trump nationally, 45 percent to 41 percent — similar to last week. Few voters say their minds could change. Trump leads among white men, whites without a college degree, and seniors. Clinton […] Read more »