In the 36 hours since the results of the Presidential election became clear, a number of “analyses” have emerged suggesting that a surprisingly large share of the Latino vote went to Donald Trump, despite his demonization of Latinos, his attacks on Judge Curiel and Alicia Machado, his blanket hostility to […] Read more »
Mistakes were made
Before asking how Donald Trump won the election, it’s necessary to ask how he even stayed close. There were numerous occasions when it seemed that he’d gone too far, and done or said something that would finish him off. The answer to that question can be found in some of […] Read more »
Epic fail: How a mid-sized error led to a rash of bad forecasts
… While pollsters correctly gauged the sentiment of most slices of the electorate, they underestimated Mr Trump’s appeal to working-class whites. Although it was clear that he would run up the score with these voters, he managed to exceed even pollsters’ rosy expectations for him: projected to win them by […] Read more »
2016 was an ordinary election, not a realignment
Political scientists will be analyzing the bases of Donald Trump’s dramatic victory for a very long time. So far, the evidence points toward a toxic brew of economic and cultural anxiety, populism, racial resentment, sexism and authoritarianism, among other factors. But from a broader perspective, the search for specific explanations […] Read more »
How do you feel? Don’t ask.
What the fuck just happened? First, the near-miss on Scottish independence, then the 2015 general election, Jeremy Corbyn’s election as Labour leader, Brexit, Corbyn’s re-election and now Donald Trump’s victory. Well, I’ve been working through a theory for a while now. I suspect some of you have been doing the […] Read more »
How the Rustbelt Paved Trump’s Road to Victory
Two Americas collided in the presidential race and the side that was genuinely passionate about its champion walked away the narrow winner. Donald Trump, the billionaire populist, mobilized ardent support from the groups most uneasy about the economic, cultural, and demographic trends remaking America. Hillary Clinton, in turn, posted solid, […] Read more »