… Four years ago, then-candidate Obama said he could heal the divisions of our country. Those who know anything about voting pattern demographics were suspicious that Obama could accomplish this goal. With this year’s election close at hand, we can now see if the president has come closer to reaching his […] Read more »
The Virtues and Vices of Election Prediction Markets
Tuesday featured what, on the surface, would seem to be a fairly neutral day of polling. … At the political betting market Intrade, however, traders seemed to have a much stronger opinion about the day’s news. Mr. Romney’s stock, which can be read as a forecast of the chance that […] Read more »
Romney Takes Lead on Economy; White Men are the Movers
Mitt Romney has advanced to a slight lead over Barack Obama in trust to handle the economy, and Obama has slipped beneath a clear majority in who better understands the public’s economic problems – two key metrics of the 2012 presidential race. These trends in the latest ABC News/Washington Post […] Read more »
Time Poll: Obama Leads by 5 in Ohio
Buoyed by early voting in his favor, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by five points in the pivotal state of Ohio, according to a new TIME poll. Counting both Ohioans who say they will head to the polls on November 6, and those who have already cast a ballot, Obama […] Read more »
As goes February, so goes the nation
Back in February, when the Signal predicted that President Barack Obama will win re-election with 303 electoral votes, we wrote that “while campaigns and candidates matter, they don’t matter all that much. Despite the varying quality and positions of the campaigns and candidates over the last 10 presidential elections, variables […] Read more »
Pew: Mitt Romney, Barack Obama on Foreign Policy
In the final presidential debate in Boca Raton, Fla., on Oct. 23, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney faced off on foreign policy. Bob Schieffer of CBS News moderated the debate and formulated the questions. What does the public at large think about the issues addressed? Here’s what our surveys have […] Read more »