… Mr. Romney clearly gained ground in the polls in the week or two after the Denver debate, putting himself in a much stronger overall position in the race. However, it seems that he is no longer doing so. [cont.] Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight (NYT) Read more »
Romney erases Obama advantage among women while Obama gains ground with men
What gender gap? Less than two weeks out from Election Day, Republican Mitt Romney has erased President Barack Obama’s 16-point advantage among women, a new Associated Press-GfK poll shows. And the president, in turn, has largely eliminated Romney’s edge among men. [cont.] AP Read more »
Projection: Republicans Will Hold the House
While there will be major shifts in the House delegations of many states on Election Day, and while more than a handful of incumbents appear likely to lose, the total change in each party’s net total of House seats will probably not be large. That means it’s good to be […] Read more »
Obama’s Edge: The Ground Game That Could Put Him Over the Top
… Four years ago, Barack Obama built the largest grassroots organization in the history of American politics. After the election, he never stopped building, and the current operation, six years in the making, makes 2008 look like “amateur ball,” in the words of Obama’s national field director Jeremy Bird. Republicans […] Read more »
Expect the Unexpected
… Today, the national polls show a truly deadlocked race, and the nine battleground states each appear to rest within about three points on either side of a tie. With diverse battlegrounds, there are plenty of moving pieces that could potentially nudge a state one or two percentage points in […] Read more »
Where we are in the race
… Speculation about a split between the popular and electoral votes is wildly overblown — while not impossible, the probability of such a split is quite low. Nonetheless, while the reasoning and the math are arcane, the conclusion is that over the last four cycles, the Electoral College has exhibited […] Read more »