Large majorities of Democrats more likely to support candidate pushing for Roe v. Wade replacement law

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An Ipsos poll exclusive for Reuters, fielded May 3, 2022 after the leak of a Supreme Court draft decision challenging Roe v. Wade, finds that in the upcoming November elections, two-thirds of Americans (63%) would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports passing a law legalizing abortion, replacing Roe if it is struck down. …

Over half of Americans are more likely to support a candidate who thinks abortion should be legal (59%), motivated by three-quarters of Democrats (74%). CONTINUED

Chris Jackson & Haley Gullquist, Ipsos

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Fox News Poll: Voters are most worried about inflation and the country’s future

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The top two concerns for voters are the future of the country and inflation.

They also appear ready to oust the incumbent party in this fall’s elections, with 39% favoring the Democratic candidate in their House district and 46% backing the Republican, if voting today.

That 7-point advantage is up from 2 points last month and is the largest Republicans have held this year. Fox News models suggest this would be a 44-seat swing in the House and an 11-seat swing in the Senate. CONTINUED

Dana Blanton, Fox News

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Fox News Poll: Just over half favor banning abortions after 15 weeks

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While more than six in 10 registered voters continue to believe the U.S. Supreme Court should uphold Roe v. Wade, the latest Fox News poll also finds over half favor banning abortions after 15 weeks.

The new national poll was completed shortly before Monday night’s leak of Associate Justice Samuel Alito’s draft majority opinion showing the high court may be poised to strike down the landmark Roe ruling. …

Overall, sentiments on Roe have held mostly steady since 2018, when Fox first asked the question. On average, more than 60% (between 57% and 65%) say the case should remain the law of the land. The new poll finds 27% think the case should be overturned. CONTINUED

Victoria Balara, Fox News

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What Now?

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… Americans are pretty stressed right now. Rising costs of living on everything from groceries to gas to rent is a top concern for Americans across the political spectrum. A recent CNBC poll found that 47 percent believe the economy is in poor shape, the highest level of pessimism on that question in 10 years.

More ominously for Democrats is the fact that a majority of Americans think that President Biden is doing a poor job handling the economy. A recent Washington Post-ABC News poll found Republicans with a 14-point advantage on the issue of dealing with the economy.

Can abortion dislodge the economy as a top issue this fall?

That, of course, is the million-dollar question. CONTINUED

Amy Walter, Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

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It’s not about abortion (alone)

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The leaked draft of the Supreme Court decision produced a torrent of texts and emails from friends and former colleagues many of whom had worked in the political sphere to advance women and women’s rights for their entire adult lives. That a legal right won 50 years ago and considered settled law since could be so readily erased was upsetting personally, politically, and professionally to many women. Assuming the decision holds – and the very politicized Supreme Court could modify it for legal or extra-legal reasons – the upset will last a long time; until, frankly, it is undone.

I concur with those who believe the decision may mobilize younger voters in November. No one wants to lose rights their grandparents had and while younger voters have long been dubious that this could be taken away, now they know there are no permanent victories. …

So what to do? It is hard as the party that is at least nominally in power to run against the party that isn’t. It can sound whiny and partisan. We can, however, run against a worldview that undergirds much of what is wrong. CONTINUED

Diane Feldman, View from the Pearl

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With midterm primaries under way, Trump retains majority GOP support

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Six in 10 Republicans back former President Donald Trump as their party’s leader, slightly more than the share of Democrats who line up behind President Joe Biden’s leadership of their party – a sign of Trump’s lasting strength in his party as the midterm primary season revs up. Nearly a year and a half after he left the presidency, Trump’s influence is extensive, albeit not monolithic: 60% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say the GOP should follow his leadership, while 34% prefer a new direction. …

Trump holds intra-party support even as a slim majority overall continues to favor charging him with a crime related to the Capitol riot. At the same time, the public divides evenly on the work of the House committee investigating the incident. CONTINUED

Sofi Sinozich, ABC News

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