With Supreme Court poised to reverse Roe, most Americans support abortion rights

· Leave a Comment

Amid reports of a draft Supreme Court opinion that would overturn Roe v. Wade, an ABC News/Washington Post poll finds that majorities of Americans support upholding Roe, say abortion should be legal in all or most cases and — by a wide margin — see abortion as a decision to be made by a woman and her doctor, not by lawmakers. …

In this poll, by contrast, 57% of Americans oppose a ban after 15 weeks; 58% say abortion should be legal in all or most cases; and 54% say the court should uphold Roe, compared with 28% who say the ruling should be overturned. CONTINUED

Christine Filer, ABC News

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

The voter turnout gap may be even bigger than we think

· Leave a Comment

Demographic change continues to steadily reshape the American electorate, but the barriers to emerging groups gaining political power commensurate with their growing numbers may be even greater than previously understood, according to a new analysis of population and voting trends that’s stirring private debate in Democratic circles.

The new study contends that while people of color will continue their steady growth to become nearly 2 in every 5 eligible voters by 2030, the gap in voter turnout between minorities and Whites, as well as between younger and older generations, is even wider than commonly understood. CONTINUED

Ronald Brownstein, CNN

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Do you know where your survey data come from?

· Leave a Comment

The online survey industry has created a complicated and opaque web of data outsourcing that can make it nearly impossible for researchers to know where their data come from and creates conditions that incentivize distracted and insincere survey responses.

We began wondering about survey data sourcing when we noticed that since 2018, the Cooperative Election Study (CES, formerly the Cooperative Congressional Election Study, CCES) has included data from Dynata, Critical Mix, and Prodege. … We then noticed that the 2020 AP VoteCast, another prominent election survey (conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago), also relied on multiple external data sources.

It turns out that this type of data outsourcing is ubiquitous. We partnered with Verasight, a survey firm with which we are both affiliated, to learn more about the online survey industry. CONTINUED

Peter K. Enns (Cornell) & Jake Rothschild (Verasight), 3Streams

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Big majority of Americans back sanctions on Russia, aid to Ukraine

· Leave a Comment

Two months after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, Americans are stalwart in their support of the embattled country, with a large, bipartisan majority supporting increased sanctions against Russia and most also backing military and humanitarian support for Ukrainians, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.

In all, 73 percent say the United States is doing either the right amount or too little to support Ukraine. At the same time, 72 percent oppose the United States taking direct military action against Russian forces, while 21 percent support the idea. CONTINUED

Ashley Parker, Emily Guskin & Scott Clement, Washington Post

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Confidence in Economic Leaders Flagging

· Leave a Comment

Public confidence in key U.S. leaders’ management of the national economy is shaken amid the highest inflation rate in more than 40 years and Americans’ increasingly bleak assessments of the national economy and their own financial situations.

Less than half of U.S. adults say they have “a great deal” or “a fair amount” of confidence in Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell (43%) or President Joe Biden (40%), as well as Republican (40%) and Democratic (38%) leaders in Congress, to do or recommend the right thing for the economy. CONTINUED

Megan Brenan, Gallup

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Majorities favor support for Ukraine despite broad concerns about impacts

· Leave a Comment

Concerns about escalation and economic consequences of the war in Ukraine loom large in U.S. public opinion, even as majorities of Americans favor increased support for Ukraine, particularly in terms of humanitarian aid and further economic sanctions on Russia.

Fifty-five percent in this ABC News/Washington Post poll also favor increased military support, even as 8 in 10 express worries about a wider war or the possible use of nuclear weapons by Russia. As many also worry about direct U.S. military involvement, a step most by far rule out. CONTINUED

Steven Sparks, ABC News

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack