How Did Roe End? In a Long Red Wave, Then All of a Sudden.

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The beginning of the end of Roe v. Wade arrived on election night in November 2010.

That night, control of state houses across the country flipped from Democrat to Republican, almost to the number: Democrats had controlled 27 state legislatures going in and ended up with 16; Republicans started with 14 and ended up controlling 25. Republicans swept not only the South but Democratic strongholds in the Midwest, picking up more seats nationwide than either party had in four decades. By the time the votes had been counted, they held their biggest margin since the Great Depression.

There had been a time, in the 15 years after Roe, when Republicans were as likely as Democrats to support an absolute right to legal abortion, and sometimes even more so. But 2010 swept in a different breed of Republican, powered by Tea Party supporters, that locked in a new conservatism. While Tea Party-backed candidates had campaigned on fiscal discipline and promised indifference to social issues, once in office they found it difficult to cut state budgets. And a well-established network was waiting with model anti-abortion laws. CONTINUED

Kate Zernike, New York Times

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End of Roe v. Wade may not hurt Republicans in Congress, but it could sting them in the states

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The Supreme Court has overturned Roe v. Wade in arguably its biggest decision in at least a decade. The practical consequences of eliminating the constitutional right to an abortion are enormous. You might think, therefore, that the political fallout would be too.

But a look at the political landscape and recent surveys reveals that the midterm impact, while not totally clear, may not be as big as people think. Any effects on November’s midterm elections are more likely to be felt at the state level than in the race for Congress. CONTINUED

Harry Enten, CNN

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Focus Group Report: Pro-Choice Democrats and Republicans on Abortion

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On June 15, 2022, GBAO conducted three focus groups online with Democratic and Republican women who varied across demographics—age, education, and race.

Key takeaways
• Among those who are pro-choice, abortion is a highly salient issue.
• Most would feel “revolted” or “angry” if Roe were overturned.
• There is some division as to how to evaluate the leaked draft decision and how the Court might ultimately rule.
• Democrats are more engaged and motivated on abortion, while some pro-choice Republicans may not vote in November.
• We have more work to do to explain codifying Roe, while term limits receive wide support. CONTINUED

Navigator Research

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Overturning Roe Flies in the Face of American Public Opinion

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The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, overturning Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey, in a case that challenged a Mississippi law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy.

The ruling flies in the face of public opinion; according to PRRI’s March 2022 poll, only 36% of Americans support overturning Roe while 61% believe that Roe should remain the law of the land. …

Banning abortion, which may indeed become the new law of the land for many states in the country with Roe overturned, simply does not have close to majority support nationally — and never has. Looking at PRRI data over the past decade, most Americans say that abortion should be legal in all or most cases. Only 9% say that abortion should be illegal in all cases in the March 2022 data, and over the past decade that has not been higher than one in five. CONTINUED

Melissa Deckman (Washington College), Public Religion Research Institute

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Supreme Court goes against public opinion in rulings on abortion, guns

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The U.S. Supreme Court’s new majority boldly signaled with twin rulings this week that public opinion would not interfere with conservative plans to shift the nation’s legal landscape.

The court rejected Roe v. Wade, a 49-year-old legal precedent that guaranteed the right to an abortion, after a string of national polls showed a clear majority of Americans wanted the opposite result. A similar court majority invalidated a 108-year-old New York state law restricting who can carry concealed guns that is supported by nearly 8 in 10 New Yorkers, according to a recent poll by Siena College.

Rather than ignore the dissonance, Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr., writing for the majority in the abortion decision, attacked the notion that the court should consider the public will. He quoted the late Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist from a previous ruling: “The Judicial Branch derives its legitimacy, not from following public opinion, but from deciding by its best lights.” CONTINUED

Michael Scherer, Washington Post

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Voters may be a lot angrier about Roe’s repeal than the right assumes

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… Efforts to figure out how political events effect vote choice are notoriously fraught. People’s responses on questions about whether they’re more or less likely to back candidates that, say, will fight to protect access to abortions are often downstream from how the respondents felt about the candidates in the first place. …

With that caveat in place, consider polling released by Gallup earlier this month. It found that, for the first time since 1996, more voters say they will only vote for a candidate who supports access to abortion than say they will only vote for one who opposes such access. What’s more, the percentage saying they’ll only vote for a pro-abortion candidate is higher than the percentage saying they’d only vote for an abortion opponent in any previous poll. CONTINUED

Philip Bump, Washington Post

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