CBS News poll: Americans react to overturning of Roe v. Wade — most disapprove, call it step backward

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The American public is rendering its initial judgment on the overturning of Roe v. Wade, and most disapprove of the ruling, including two-thirds of women who disapprove.

By more than a 20-point margin, Americans call it a step backward rather than forward for America. And women, by more than three to one, think the ruling will make women’s lives worse rather than better.

Those who approve — and in particular, the three-fourths of conservatives who do — say they feel both hopeful and happy. CONTINUED

CBS News

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CBS News poll: Half say Trump tried to stay in office through illegal means, should be charged with crimes

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Most Americans continue to feel U.S. democracy is threatened, and the Jan. 6 hearings offer a window into their different reasons why.

From what they’ve seen of the hearings thus far, half the country thinks former President Donald Trump planned to remain in office through unconstitutional and illegal activities. Half think that he should, in turn, be charged with crimes, and that the attack on the Capitol was an “insurrection.”

Meanwhile, though, most Republicans feel Trump had no such plans, and a big, unmoved majority of them still say President Joe Biden didn’t legitimately win. Half of Republicans still call that day’s events “patriotism,” a view that’s floated around the same mark since that day. CONTINUED

CBS News

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Striking down New York gun law could set a trend

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This week the Supreme Court struck down a New York State law that placed limits on who can get a permit to carry a gun in public. The 6-3 ruling immediately raised questions about similar laws in other states, but in a broader sense, it may have opened the door to other gun rules around the country — which could also be challenged in court. …

A specific part of the majority opinion argued that gun restrictions had to be about more than public safety, they also had to be “consistent with this nation’s historical tradition of firearm regulation.” And one might argue that many state laws are not consistent with historical tradition because guns and the laws around them have changed a lot in the last 200-plus years. The New York law that the Court struck down had been on the books for more than a century. CONTINUED

Dante Chinni, NBC News

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Biden’s Economic Disaster Means Election Success for GOP, Trump

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This national poll of 1,000 likely voters conducted June 17 to 22 says that with 137 days to election day, if Americans can survive economically, they will finally vote to end the pain, suffering, and pessimism that President Biden and his Democratic majorities are inflicting upon them.

71% of all voters say the United States is on the wrong track.

Only 22% say right direction. This is a record worst result ever for our national poll. CONTINUED

John McLaughlin & Jim McLaughlin (McLaughlin & Associates), Newsmax

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What Happens if the GOP Tries to Leave Trump Behind

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… It is the fundamental belief — or tropism — of Trump that he is incapable of losing an election honestly. The loss itself is proof of fraud, and even a potential loss is grounds for rejecting the results. …

Given this core character trait, what do you suppose will happen if Trump faces a serious competitor for the nomination in 2024? Is he likely to accept the vote count that shows him losing a primary or caucus? Is it likely he will forego the temptation to challenge every convention rule that poses a threat to him? …

Most important, a Trump who is denied the nomination — which, by his account, must have been the product of horrible, disgusting cheating the likes of which nobody has ever seen — is a Trump with the inclination and the resources to run an independent campaign for president. And he’ll have enough true believers to doom whoever the GOP nominee is. CONTINUED

Jeff Greenfield, Politico Magazine

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Many states with antiabortion laws have pro-choice majorities

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… We set out to find out what percentage of people in each state support legal abortions. Drawing on work by one of us and Devin Caughey, we used micro-data from publicly available probability polls from academic surveys such as American National Election Studies and media polls we obtained via the Roper Center from organizations such as the Pew Research Center, ABC News, PRRI and the Kaiser Family Foundation. …

Our analysis of polling data suggests that more Americans will live under an abortion policy that is out of step with their preferences, with consequences for democratic representation. This is largely because clear majorities of citizens in purple states that are likely to ban abortion — like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin and even Iowa — support abortion rights, as our figure shows. CONTINUED

Jake Grumbach (U. of Washington) & Christopher Warshaw (George Washington U.), Monkey Cage

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