The ‘Zombie movie’ centrist narrative about regaining working class support

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The popular “Moderates versus the Left” narrative about Democrats’ struggle to regain the support of working class voters is the “Night of the Living Dead” of American political commentary. No matter how many times it is buried by the weight of events it keeps on coming back.

Here’s the plot of this oft-repeated journalistic bed-time story:

1. In the 1980’s the Democrats had drifted too far to the left, driving away working class voters who became “Reagan Democrats” instead. In response, the “New Democrats” organized to regain the lost working class support. In his 1992 campaign Clinton used the New Democratic strategy and narrative to win victory. He signaled his break with the left and embrace of a moderate agenda with a dramatic “Sister Souljah” moment during the campaign and thereby regained “the center.”

2. Now, once again, Democrats have drifted too far to the left, losing working class voters to Trump and the GOP. And again, “Moderates” are pushing back.

Even on the surface this narrative doesn’t hold up to serious scrutiny. CONTINUED — pdf

Andrew Levison, The Democratic Strategist

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Faith in American System Drops

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Only a little more than 1 in 3 Americans currently believe our system of government is sound, a view that has declined significantly over the past few years. The Monmouth University Poll finds that the House select committee to investigate January 6 has not changed many minds about what happened that day, in part because few Republicans are following the hearings. In fact, Republicans are less inclined than they were a year ago to describe the violence at the U.S. Capitol as either a riot or an insurrection. In the poll – conducted before Cassidy Hutchinson’s public testimony on June 28 – 4 in 10 Americans said former President Donald Trump was directly responsible for the incident. CONTINUED

Monmouth University Polling Institute

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PRRI Survey: Democrats More Likely to Vote on Abortion Views Than Before Dobbs

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A new survey conducted in the days following the U.S. Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization by Public Religion Research Institute reveals that Democrats have become much more likely to say they will only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion. More than four in ten Democrats (43%) now indicate this is a crucial aspect of their vote, compared to only 17% who said the same in the fall of 2020. This is the first time in PRRI polling that Democrats have been more likely than Republicans (31%) to say a candidate must share their view on abortion in order to get their vote. CONTINUED

Public Religion Research Institute

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High Courts, High Stakes: 2022’s top state supreme court races

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Key Points
• State supreme court contests often attract little public attention, but they can carry significant weight on policy, especially in an era when courts are having to weigh in on such divisive topics as abortion and election administration.
• About two-thirds of the states have some type of state supreme court election on the ballot this year, but as of now, 8 states stand out as the likeliest to have at least one genuinely competitive race this fall: North Carolina, Ohio, Illinois, Montana, Michigan, Kentucky, New Mexico, and Arkansas. CONTINUED

Louis Jacobson, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

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Majority of Public Disapproves of Supreme Court’s Decision To Overturn Roe v. Wade

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A majority of Americans disapprove of the U.S. Supreme Court’s landmark ruling overturning the Roe v. Wade decision, which had guaranteed a constitutional right to an abortion for nearly 50 years. Public support for legal abortion remains largely unchanged since before the decision, with 62% saying it should be legal in all or most cases.

Nearly six-in-ten adults (57%) disapprove of the court’s sweeping decision, including 43% who strongly disapprove. About four-in-ten (41%) approve of the court’s decision (25% strongly approve). CONTINUED

Pew Research Center

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Texas: Majority oppose banning abortion; Gov. Greg Abbott leads Beto O’Rourke by 6 points

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A new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll finds 15% of Texans expressing support for a complete ban on abortion access in polling conducted primarily in the week prior to the U.S. Supreme Court’s announcement of its landmark opinion overturning Roe v. Wade. While 37% of Texas voters say that they support “trigger law” that would ban abortion in most cases in Texas in the wake of the Supreme Court’s ruling, no more than 36% would foreclose all access to legal abortion across a range of circumstances. …

Incumbent Governor Greg Abbott leads Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke by 6 points among registered voters, 45% to 39%, with 3% choosing third party candidates and 13% either someone else or remain undecided. CONTINUED

Jim Henson & Joshua Blank, University of Texas at Austin

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