The Glaring Contradiction of Republicans’ Rhetoric of Freedom

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For decades Republicans have marketed themselves as the party of freedom. During the 1990s and early 2000s, conservative activists took up the description of the GOP coined by the anti-tax activist Grover Norquist as the “leave us alone” coalition, so named because it consisted of voters whose stated aspiration was to live without government interference. At the height of the coronavirus pandemic, Republican governors led by Ron DeSantis in Florida gravitated toward unbending opposition to business and school shutdowns, as well as to mask or vaccine requirements, often overriding Democratic-run local governments that tried to impose them.

“While so many around the country have consigned the people’s rights to the graveyard,” DeSantis said in his annual State of the State address earlier this year, “Florida has stood as freedom’s vanguard.”

But the systematic drive by GOP state officials and the Republican-appointed Supreme Court justices to roll back seemingly long-settled civil rights and liberties, including the right to abortion, has provided Democrats with a unique opening to reverse the terms of this debate, particularly in races for state offices, where the rights battles are now centered. An array of Democratic governors and gubernatorial candidates are presenting Republicans as a threat to Americans’ freedoms. CONTINUED

Ronald Brownstein, The Atlantic

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Americans’ Intensity Running High Before U.S. Midterms

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A recent Gallup poll finds Americans giving more thought to November’s elections for Congress than usual at this stage of the campaign and expressing above-average enthusiasm about voting. They are also placing unusually high importance on certain issues — including the economy, gun policy and abortion — in determining their vote for Congress. …

Nearly half of U.S. adults say they have given “quite a lot” of thought to this year’s midterm elections. This compares with no more than 37% saying the same in the summer months before the 1998 through 2014 midterm elections. CONTINUED

Lydia Saad & Megan Brenan, Gallup

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House Math and History

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Just about every election analyst and handicapper agrees that the House is all-but-certain to flip. The only disagreement these days is how many seats Republicans will gain.

On paper, the grim political environment suggests the kind of wave election that rivals the wipeouts of 1994 and 2010, when the party in power lost more than 50 seats.

However, our current forecast, as analyzed by House editor David Wasserman, is for GOP gains in the 20-35 seat range.

Why don’t we foresee 50-60 seat sweep? CONTINUED

Amy Walter, Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

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Most gun owners favor modest restrictions but deeply distrust government, poll finds

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The overwhelming majority of gun owners are in favor of universal background checks, of raising the minimum age to buy guns to 21 and so-called “red flag” laws to remove guns from potentially dangerous people, a new NPR/Ipsos survey finds.

But most of these gun owners also don’t want to see an AR-15-style semiautomatic weapon ban, doubt new gun-control measures would do anything to stop mass shootings and Republican gun owners in particular think passing new gun control laws is a slippery slope toward taking all guns away. CONTINUED

Domenico Montanaro & Eric Westervelt, NPR News

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Inflation and gas prices top the list of the public’s priorities

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Dissatisfaction with the country’s economy has been growing, as inflation continues to rise, interest rates increase, and stocks enter a bear market. Inflation and gas prices top the list of Americans’ priorities for the government to address in the next year, but other priority issues differ between Republicans, Democrats, and independents. Nearly half of the public say neither party is doing a good job of getting things done, and at least 3 in 10 feel that neither party represents their values, shares their priorities, or understands what needs to happen to solve the problems they care about.

To explore the public’s agenda for the coming year, each December since 2015, The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research conducted a poll in which respondents provided up to five volunteered issues that they believe should be priorities for the federal government. This year, The AP-NORC Center also asked the public at the half-way mark for the top issues the federal government should address over the next year. CONTINUED

AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research

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Here’s What the Latest Polls Tell Us About Abortion and the 2022 Midterms

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In the months leading up to the Supreme Court’s ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, polls indicated that if the Court were to overrule Roe v. Wade, the resurgent abortion issue would probably help Democrats in the midterms.

November is still months away, and the early evidence from special elections is hazy. But in public opinion research, the impact is clear: Every poll taken since Dobbs shows a significant boost for Democrats. Here’s an overview of the evidence so far. CONTINUED

William Saletan, The Bulwark

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