More Americans Struggling; Inflation, Gas Prices Top Family Concerns

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The number of Americans who are financially struggling has increased by double digits in the past year as inflation and gas prices top the list of problems faced by the nation’s families. The Monmouth University Poll finds a majority say the federal government’s actions are hurting them and that President Joe Biden’s policies are not benefitting the middle class. Preference for party control of Congress remains divided, with no real movement since the spring. …

Biden’s overall job rating continues to trend downward. Currently, just 36% approve of the job he is doing while 58% disapprove. It has now been a year since Biden held a net positive rating (48% approve and 44% disapprove in July 2021). Just 10% of Americans say the country is headed in the right direction while 88% say it is on the wrong track. CONTINUED

Monmouth University Polling Institute

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Has the generic-ballot question lost its predictive power?

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In a notable reversal from typical trends, Republicans took the lead in polling averages of the congressional generic-ballot question in late 2021 and have remained a few percentage points ahead of Democrats since. What does that mean for November? Probably less than you think.

This survey question—used because it isn’t feasible to put all 435 possible matchups on a single survey instrument—asks respondents whether they plan to vote for the Republican or Democratic candidate for Congress in their district. It has traditionally been highly predictive of how many House seats might change hands at the national level. But those days might be over.

What has changed? Polarization—at two levels. CONTINUED

Natalie Jackson, National Journal

Recent polls: Generic congressional ballot

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Americans’ Readiness to Emerge from the Pandemic and Changes to Daily Life

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The lives of most adults in America remain different than they were before the pandemic. While not everyone expects to regularly use services accelerated by COVID-19 like curbside pickup, grocery delivery, telehealth, or reduced-capacity “senior hours” once the pandemic ends, many have gained familiarity with them and think it is a good thing that these changes may remain available as options in daily life.

A new study from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research and The SCAN Foundation finds that just 12% of adults feel that their lives are completely the same today as they were before the pandemic, 54% feel their lives are somewhat the same, and 34% are not yet the same. Fifty-six percent of those whose lives are completely the same think that is a good thing, while 39% of those whose lives are not yet the same feel that is a bad thing. CONTINUED

AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research

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Here’s why Democrats could keep the Senate

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Election Day 2022 is now four months away. Democrats are trying to hold on to slim majorities in both the House and Senate. They’re doing so against the backdrop of high inflation and an economy viewed in poor shape, which is the issue dominating voters’ minds.

I’ve generally been high on Republicans’ chances of taking control of the Senate and especially the House. You don’t normally see the party controlling the White House do well in midterms when the President’s approval rating is in the high 30s. But can Democrats defy political gravity and retain power, even with an unpopular Joe Biden in office?

The answer in the House is likely not, but the answer in the currently evenly divided Senate is far less clear. And it’s in the upper chamber where we begin our look at the political news of the week. CONTINUED

Harry Enten, CNN

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Confidence in U.S. Institutions Down; Average at New Low

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Americans are less confident in major U.S. institutions than they were a year ago, with significant declines for 11 of the 16 institutions tested and no improvements for any. The largest declines in confidence are 11 percentage points for the Supreme Court — as reported in late June before the court issued controversial rulings on gun laws and abortion — and 15 points for the presidency, matching the 15-point drop in President Joe Biden’s job approval rating since the last confidence survey in June 2021. CONTINUED

Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup

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McConnell wants to win the suburbs by defusing cultural hot buttons. Trump and his own party have other ideas.

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When Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell voted for the most significant gun violence prevention bill in nearly three decades, he offered a candid explanation for his turnaround after decades of opposing firearm restrictions.

“It’s no secret that we’ve lost ground in suburban areas. We pretty much own rural and small-town America. And I think this is a sensible solution to the problem before us, which is school safety and mental health,” McConnell told reporters. “And yes, I hope it will be viewed favorably by voters in the suburbs that we need to regain in order to hopefully be a majority next year.”

The Kentucky Republican’s goal is to downplay the contentious issues on which suburban voters may be more sympathetic to Democrats — including gun restrictions, abortion rights and former President Donald Trump’s lies that the 2020 election was stolen — to soften the GOP’s image with this group of voters ahead of the midterm elections. CONTINUED

Sahil Kapur & Allan Smith, NBC News

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