Poll Shows Tight Race for Control of Congress as Class Divide Widens

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With President Biden’s approval rating mired in the 30s and with nearly 80 percent of voters saying the country is heading in the wrong direction, all the ingredients seem to be in place for a Republican sweep in the November midterm elections.

But Democrats and Republicans begin the campaign in a surprisingly close race for control of Congress, according to the first New York Times/Siena College survey of the cycle. Overall among registered voters, 41 percent said they preferred Democrats to control Congress compared with 40 percent who preferred Republican control. CONTINUED

Nate Cohn, New York Times

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National Polls, State Ballots Measure Different ‘Public Opinions’

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Nate Cohn, who covers politics and polling for the New York Times, wrote an article last month (6/3/22) comparing the results of national polls with actual ballot measures in states. His major theme was that national polls may be unreliable when they show high levels of support for various policies. The reason: When those same policies are voted on at the state level, they uniformly perform worse than what the national polls show.

He suggested to supporters of gun control in particular: “Their problem could also be the voters, not just politicians or special interests.”

While it’s always prudent to be skeptical of polls in general, I believe Cohn goes too far in dismissing the utility of national polls, and implying that the votes on state initiatives and referendums are a better indicator of what the public wants. CONTINUED

David W. Moore, FAIR

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Rage, rage against the octogenarian steel cage match

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This is the summer of Joe Biden’s discontent. Even though gas prices are dropping and the economy remains strong, Biden’s approval ratings resemble Harry Truman’s during the depths of the Korean War. …

While prominent Democrats silently pray and softly whisper to reporters the hope that Biden will not run again, another Trump campaign seems as inevitable as a fresh burst of snarling invective about a supposedly “stolen election.” Trump supporters seem untroubled that the avatar of their warped dreams will be 82 in 2028.

The point here is not to lament the double standard of news coverage about Biden’s and Trump’s ages. Rather, it is to stress all the reasons why it is far from certain that Trump will be the 2024 GOP standard-bearer. CONTINUED

Walter Shapiro, Roll Call

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Biden’s low poll numbers are exactly what we should expect

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When Joe Biden was elected president, a common refrain was that he would usher in a new era of “normalcy” after four chaotic years of President Donald Trump. But in certain ways, normalcy hasn’t returned. This is visible first and foremost in the inflation rate, which in May was higher than at any point since 1981.

But this growing inflation, and the resulting pessimism about the economy, has restored one thing to normal: the historical relationship between how Americans view the economy and how they view the president. …

Biden’s approval rating is lower now that consumer sentiment has dropped. The size of that relationship — depicted in the blue line — is almost identical to the relationship that existed from 1961 to 2008. CONTINUED

John Sides (Vanderbilt) & Robert Griffin (Democracy Fund Voter Study Group), Monkey Cage

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Half of G.O.P. Voters Ready to Leave Trump Behind, Poll Finds

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As Donald J. Trump weighs whether to open an unusually early White House campaign, a New York Times/Siena College poll shows that his post-presidential quest to consolidate his support within the Republican Party has instead left him weakened, with nearly half the party’s primary voters seeking someone different for president in 2024 and a significant number vowing to abandon him if he wins the nomination.

By focusing on political payback inside his party instead of tending to wounds opened by his alarming attempts to cling to power after his 2020 defeat, Mr. Trump appears to have only deepened fault lines among Republicans during his yearlong revenge tour. CONTINUED

Michael C. Bender, New York Times

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This may be Democrats’ only chance to blunt a red wave in November

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To avoid the worst-case scenario in November, Democrats must defy one of the most powerful trends shaping modern congressional elections. Recent polls have provided them a glimmer of optimism that they might do just that.

That trend is the tightening correlation between voters’ attitudes toward a president and their support for US House, Senate and even gubernatorial candidates from his party. With President Joe Biden’s approval ratings falling to the lowest levels of his presidency, that traditional pattern threatens Democrats with sweeping losses in November’s midterm elections.

But even as Biden has continued to sink, other Democrats running this year have stabilized or improved their positions in a spate of recent polls, both in several major Senate races and in measures of which party voters say they intend to support for the House of Representatives. CONTINUED

Ronald Brownstein, CNN

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