Joe Biden’s presidency is out of gas

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President Joe Biden is in trouble, big trouble. When 64 percent of those who said they would be voting in the 2024 Democratic presidential primary want someone new to carry the banner, citing age and job performance, as a New York Times/Siena College survey showed this week, it’s more than just a dip in the polls. When the right track-wrong track in the same poll is 13 percent to 77 percent (with Democrats at 63 percent wrong track and independents at 81 percent wrong track), there’s no sugar coating the obvious.

This is a failing presidency.

So, what’s a president to do? CONTINUED

David Winston (Winston Group), Roll Call

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Strength in Numbers: A Book Event with G. Elliott Morris

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Political polling has come under sharp critique as a result of lackluster performances in two straight election cycles. Yet, despite the public’s skepticism, polling is more important than ever. In his new book Strength in Numbers: How Polls Work and Why We Need Them (W. W. Norton, 2022), G. Elliott Morris of the Economist offers a compelling and necessary corrective to those who argue that polls exist only as imperfect instruments for predicting election outcomes. He argues that polls play a crucial role in improving democracy and charts a path for the polling industry’s future.

Join AEI for a presentation of the book, followed by a panel discussion on the future of political polling.

American Enterprise Institute

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As Faith Flags in U.S. Government, Many Voters Want to Upend the System

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A majority of American voters across nearly all demographics and ideologies believe their system of government does not work, with 58 percent of those interviewed for a New York Times/Siena College poll saying that the world’s oldest independent constitutional democracy needs major reforms or a complete overhaul.

The discontent among Republicans is driven by their widespread, unfounded doubts about the legitimacy of the nation’s elections. For Democrats, it is the realization that even though they control the White House and Congress, it is Republicans, joined with their allies in gerrymandered state legislatures and the Supreme Court, who are achieving long-sought political goals. CONTINUED

Reid J. Epstein, New York Times

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Biden’s Job Rating Slumps as Public’s View of Economy Turns More Negative

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With public views of the nation’s economy at their most negative in years, Joe Biden’s political standing is at the lowest point of his presidency. Yet Biden is hardly the only focal point of the country’s political discontent: Americans express unfavorable views of both major parties and a range of leading political figures, including Biden’s predecessor, Donald Trump.

Biden’s current job approval numbers are the lowest since he became president, with 37% of U.S. adults saying they approve of how he is handling his job as president while 62% disapprove. Biden’s job rating has declined 6 percentage points since March (43%) and 18 points over the past year; last July, a 55% majority approved of Biden’s job performance. …

Americans are more likely to say they agree with the Democratic Party than the Republican Party on a number of key issues – including policies on health care, race, COVID-19 and climate change as well as policies affecting LGBT people. However, the Republican Party holds a 7 percentage point advantage on the economy: 40% Americans say they agree with the GOP on economic policy, compared with a third who say they agree with the Democratic Party. CONTINUED

Pew Research Center

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Republicans lose slight edge on the generic ballot

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The 2022 midterms have narrowed to a rough parity between Democrats and Republicans, following a significant Republican advantage in May. This development in the generic Congressional ballot from our FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos election program does not mean Democrats are likely to hold on to control of the House of Representatives, considering Republican advantages in redistricting. However, it does suggest that, following the overturn of Roe vs. Wade, much of the enthusiasm-advantage Republicans enjoyed up to this point has been reduced. CONTINUED

Ipsos

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Poll Shows Tight Race for Control of Congress as Class Divide Widens

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With President Biden’s approval rating mired in the 30s and with nearly 80 percent of voters saying the country is heading in the wrong direction, all the ingredients seem to be in place for a Republican sweep in the November midterm elections.

But Democrats and Republicans begin the campaign in a surprisingly close race for control of Congress, according to the first New York Times/Siena College survey of the cycle. Overall among registered voters, 41 percent said they preferred Democrats to control Congress compared with 40 percent who preferred Republican control. CONTINUED

Nate Cohn, New York Times

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