What’s Behind Biden’s Record-Low Approval Rating?

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In games such as golf, you win by scoring lower than any of your opponents. But in the realm of presidential job approval, such an approach is a recipe for political upheaval, as President Biden has found over the past few months. Polls continue to show his approval rating in poor shape, and even Democrats are asking questions about his political future amid broad dissatisfaction with the current state of the country.

In fact, Biden is dancing with a bleak bit of history: His approval rating of 39 percent is now the worst of any elected president at this point in his presidency since the end of World War II, according to FiveThirtyEight’s historical presidential approval data. CONTINUED

Geoffrey Skelley, FiveThirtyEight

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The weird divergence between views of Biden and support for his party

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… Biden’s net approval sits at minus-16 (a figure obtained by subtracting those who disapprove from those who approve). The previous record-holder for lowest net approval 541 days into the presidency was a gentleman named Donald Trump. His net approval at this point was minus-11. …

Presidential approval is one of the better indicators for how a federal election cycle is going to go. The more popular a president, particularly before a midterm, the less damage his party suffers in House races. Very unpopular presidents have generally overseen larger decimations of their party’s congressional caucuses.

Yet at the moment, the generic congressional ballot — the query in polls asking respondents if they plan to vote for the generic Democrat or Republican in their local House race — shows only a modest advantage for the Republican Party. At this point in the 2018 cycle, when Trump was at minus-11 approval, Democrats had a 7-point advantage in FiveThirtyEight’s average. Now, Republicans have only a 2-point advantage. CONTINUED

Philip Bump, Washington Post

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Will Biden and Trump face off again in 2024?

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… First-term presidents are usually their party’s nominee in the next election. Aside from that, however, conventional wisdom suggests it’s too early to say who the 2024 contenders will be. We’re not so sure. We believe that even this early, we can gain insight into who the nominees will be by asking Americans the right question.

Most surveys ask who Americans support for president by having them choose from a list of prominent politicians. We take a different approach. Instead, we ask respondents to name who they would like to see on the ticket. This more open-ended technique has proved remarkably accurate. CONTINUED

Jonathon P. Schuldt & Peter K. Enns (Cornell), Monkey Cage

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Confidence in Public Schools Turns More Partisan

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Americans’ confidence in U.S. public schools remains low, with 28% saying they have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in the institution, similar to 32% last year. Both figures are down from 41% in 2020, reflecting a brief surge in the early months of the pandemic after registering 29% in 2019.

While all political party groups expressed more confidence than usual in public schools in 2020, Republicans’ confidence has since plunged, while independents’ has dipped and Democrats’ has remained near their pandemic high. CONTINUED

Lydia Saad, Gallup

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Just 18% of Americans say Biden should run for reelection in 2024 — a new low

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Just 18% of Americans say President Biden should run for reelection in 2024, according to the latest Yahoo News/YouGov poll — the lowest number to date. Nearly two-thirds (64%) say he should bow out.

And for the first time, more Democrats now say Biden should pass on a second term (41%) than say he should pursue one (35%). CONTINUED

Andrew Romano, Yahoo News

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Texas: The 2022 Gubernatorial Election

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The Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston conducted an online survey of Texas registered voters to identify their preferences and opinions regarding the 2022 general election candidates and abortion policy. …

This report examines the vote intention of Texans for the 2022 Texas gubernatorial, lieutenant governor and attorney general elections as well as analyzes the influence of a wide range of issues on Texas voters’ gubernatorial vote decision along with the favorability ratings of all statewide non-judicial candidates. CONTINUED

Hobby School of Public Affairs, University of Houston

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