Tumultuous politics leaves Americans alienated, suspicious of opposite party

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The past few years of American politics have been divisive and, at times, malicious, from name-calling on social media to the January 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. And judging from one recent poll, all those hits to the nation’s body politic have left a big bruise.

The poll from the University of Chicago’s Institute of Politics finds a nation riven by extreme partisanship and alienation and full of citizens who are looking at each other and the larger system with doubt and distrust. You can see the impacts throughout the electorate using a wide range of measures. CONTINUED

Dante Chinni, NBC News

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The audacious PR plot that seeded doubt about climate change

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Thirty years ago, a bold plan was cooked up to spread doubt and persuade the public that climate change was not a problem. The little-known meeting – between some of America’s biggest industrial players and a PR genius – forged a devastatingly successful strategy that endured for years, and the consequences of which are all around us.

On an early autumn day in 1992, E Bruce Harrison, a man widely acknowledged as the father of environmental PR, stood up in a room full of business leaders and delivered a pitch like no other.

At stake was a contract worth half a million dollars a year – about £850,000 in today’s money. The prospective client, the Global Climate Coalition (GCC) – which represented the oil, coal, auto, utilities, steel, and rail industries – was looking for a communications partner to change the narrative on climate change.

Don Rheem and Terry Yosie, two of Harrison’s team present that day, are sharing their stories for the first time. CONTINUED

Jane McMullen, BBC News

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Our warming world

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All-consuming fires in Europe, disappearing lakes out West, and sweltering temperatures in DC; heat waves are breaking records, disrupting life, and killing many across the world.

Climate scientists have warned repeatedly that the earth is warming at an unprecedented speed. These events are starting to assume a new normal: intense wildfires, prolonged droughts, and record-breaking highs. Climate change is here, but is that a shared reality for Americans? CONTINUED

Clifford Young & Sarah Feldman, Ipsos

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Selling the Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal to American Voters

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The bipartisan infrastructure deal (BIF) was a historic achievement that few thought possible. But since its passage in November, the law has done little to move voter opinion in Democrats’ favor.

To find out why and what to do, Third Way and Impact Research conducted a survey of 2000 likely 2022 voters to investigate voter opinion on the BIF and its messaging. The results point to one fixable imperative and several simple but important messaging tips for Democrats when it comes to talking about the law. This memo lays out ways to maximize the electoral impact of the BIF for members in swing districts, and for the Biden administration as it looks to trumpet its accomplishments in 2024. CONTINUED

Aliza Astrow & Jim Kessler, Third Way

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

The Republican Electoral College Advantage

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Last week, we released the 25th Anniversary edition of the Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI℠). The Cook PVI measures how each state and district performs at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole. Among the many insights gleaned by my colleague David Wasserman from that report was that “Republicans continue to benefit from an electoral map tilted in their favor on nearly all levels.”

In fact, when looking exclusively at the Electoral College map, Republicans are enjoying a stronger advantage than at any point in the 25-year history of the Cook PVI. CONTINUED

Amy Walter, Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

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Primary polls can often vary widely, so proceed with caution

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Last week, a poll on the Michigan Republican gubernatorial primary field showed that conservative commentator Tudor Dixon had vaulted into an 11-point lead in the race. The advantage, which was outside the poll’s margin of error, suggested she was the clear front-runner.

This week, another poll of the race showed Dixon up by four points, well inside the poll’s margin of error in a race the pollster called “a complete toss-up.”

The difference in those polls, which is not easily attributable to any changes in the race, is another example of why polling for primary races, especially for Republicans in 2022, can be exceedingly difficult and why people should be very cautious in reading them. CONTINUED

Dante Chinni, NBC News

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