What Could Save Democrats From a Midterm Catastrophe?

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At a time when very little if anything is “normal” about American politics, we have come to expect the unexpected. While the House looks very, very likely to flip into Republican hands and the Senate more likely than not, what kind of event might keep at least one if not both chambers in Democratic control?

Democrats fervently hope that the reversal of Roe v. Wade, gun legislation, and the findings of the Jan. 6 committee (or some combination thereof) might galvanize their voters enough to retain at least one chamber. But data suggests that even a combination of all three is unlikely to be the antidote for their problems. CONTINUED

Charlie Cook

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Little change in partisan divisions and motivations about voting following Supreme Court abortion decision

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A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds little evidence that partisan motivation to vote in the 2022 elections has been altered by the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, which had established a right to an abortion. There has been much speculation that this June decision, in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, would change the November outlook.

Yet a comparison of the Marquette Law School Poll’s May and July national survey data finds few elements of change in motivation to vote or in vote choice, despite a substantial drop in public approval of the Court’s handling of its job and a majority of the public opposed to the Court’s decision in Dobbs. CONTINUED

Charles Franklin, Marquette Law School Poll

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CNN Poll: Americans’ confidence in elections has faded since January 6

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Most Americans lack confidence that the results of US elections reflect the will of the people, a sentiment that has grown steadily since January 2021, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.

And about half of Americans, 48%, say they think it is at least somewhat likely that in the next few years, some elected officials will successfully overturn the results of a US election because their party did not win.

Follow-up interviews with people who participated in the poll suggest that the driving factors behind Republicans’ and Democrats’ views on elections are near-opposite. But there is a common thread: Concern. CONTINUED

Jennifer Agiesta, CNN

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Are Latinos Really Realigning Toward Republicans?

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Once the backbone of the Democratic base, working-class white voters have been migrating toward the Republican Party since the 1960s, largely out of alienation from the Democrats’ liberal stands on cultural and racial issues. Half a century later, those working-class white voters—usually defined as having less than a four-year college education—have become the indisputable foundation of the Republican coalition, especially in the era of Donald Trump.

Now a chorus of centrist and right-leaning political analysts are claiming that the same shift has begun among working-class nonwhite voters, especially Latinos. …

There’s no disagreement that Trump, despite all the controversies surrounding his hard-line immigration policies and his often harsh rhetoric about immigrants, ran better among Latinos in 2020 than he did in 2016. And there’s no dispute that President Joe Biden’s approval rating among Latinos has sagged, just as it has in most polls among other groups.

But whether these results amount to a lasting realignment among working-class Latino voters is much more disputed—as is the assertion that rejection of liberal cultural values is the principal cause of the recent Democratic difficulties with them. CONTINUED

Ronald Brownstein, The Atlantic

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A majority thinks Trump is to blame for Jan. 6 but won’t face charges, poll finds

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Ahead of a prime-time January 6th Committee hearing Thursday, a majority of Americans are paying attention and blame former President Donald Trump for what happened that day in 2021, but don’t think he will be prosecuted, according to the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll.

A majority of independents (55%) and 4 in 5 Democrats, but less than half of Republicans (44%), said they are paying at least some attention to the hearings.

A majority (57%) said Trump is to blame a great deal or a good amount for the Capitol riot, including 92% of Democrats and 57% of independents, but just 18% of Republicans. CONTINUED

Domenico Montanaro, NPR News

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New poll asks Americans whether Trump should face charges, top midterm priorities

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About half of Americans think former President Donald Trump should face criminal charges for his role in the deadly insurrection that took place at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, according to the latest PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll. But far fewer – roughly a quarter – think Trump will actually be prosecuted. …

While a majority of Americans overall blame Trump for what happened that day, public opinion remains divided down party lines, according to this last poll. Nearly all Democrats – 92 percent – and a majority of independents but only about one in five Republicans agree. …

Half of Americans say the events of Jan. 6, 2021 at the U.S. Capitol amounted to an insurrection and a threat to democracy. That includes 86 percent of Democrats, 52 percent of independents and 12 percent of Republicans. CONTINUED

Laura Santhanam, PBS NewsHour

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