Will an antiquated voting rule cost Republicans the Senate?

· Leave a Comment

Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell sees the writing on the wall. He thinks the weakness of his party’s Senate nominees may doom his chances of becoming Majority Leader once again. The data support his view.

However, there’s a reform that could have avoided this situation – and can potentially help pull the nation back from the brink of democracy’s breakdown.

Usually it’s Republicans who are suspicious of innovations in voting rules such as ranked-choice voting. But if they fail to retake control of the Senate this year, it will be in part due to antiquated rules that prevent the majority from getting a candidate of its choice. CONTINUED

Sam Wang, Sam’s Newsletter

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Californians oppose Biden and Trump running for President in 2024

· Leave a Comment

By a nearly two-to-one margin (61% to 31%) California voters oppose Joe Biden seeking a second term as President in 2024. Republicans are overwhelmingly against the President running again (87% to 9%), while the state’s registered Democrats are evenly split, with 46% in favor and 46% opposed.

Despite repeated denials that he will become a candidate for president in 2024, Governor Gavin Newsom emerges as one of the leading presidential contenders in his home state should Biden decide not to run for re-election. While none of the Democrats included as possible presidential candidates in the state’s 2024 Democratic primary currently receives substantial voter support in this setting, Newsom and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders top the list with each receiving 13% of the preferences of this state’s Democratic primary voters. CONTINUED

Mark DiCamillo, Berkeley IGS Poll

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Where is the public on immigration?

· Leave a Comment

Immigration is a perennial and divisive issue in American politics. Our latest polling with NPR demonstrates just how true that is.

As the midterms approach, the misinformation and the heated political rhetoric surrounding immigration seem to be resonating with the public.

But why is that? How did we get here? In short, populism and the persistent feeling many Americans have that the system is broken are creating the political ingredients that drive some of this sentiment. This is our context. CONTINUED

Clifford Young & Sarah Feldman, Ipsos

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

COVID-19 Vaccines Uncommon for U.S. Children Under Age 5

· Leave a Comment

A recent Gallup poll finds that 14% of U.S. parents of children under age 5 say their child has received a COVID-19 vaccine. This comes about two months after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration authorized emergency use of vaccines for children in this age group.

While relatively few children this young have been vaccinated thus far, 29% of parents say they plan to have their child immunized. However, a solid 57% majority do not intend to do so. CONTINUED

Megan Brenan, Gallup

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Vibe Shift

· Leave a Comment

After months of “Democrats are doomed” chatter, there’s been a definite shift in mood and momentum toward the party in power. Republicans are openly fretting about their flawed and under-funded Senate candidates, while Democrats, who not long ago were bemoaning fumbles by the White House and Democratic leadership in Congress, are now sharing “Dark Brandon” memes and polling data showing Democrats ahead in key Senate contests.

But is all of this just a vibe shift? Or has there been real movement toward Democrats?

The first place to look for meaningful movement in the fundamentals is in opinions of President Biden. CONTINUED

Amy Walter, Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Is There a Serious Case for a Not-Awful Election for Democrats This Fall?

· Leave a Comment

… The conventional wisdom in Washington would indicate that the Democrats are all but certain to lose the House in 2022, and very likely the Senate, too. The yearlong collapse in Joe Biden’s approval ratings has been seen as a virtual guarantee of this outcome. Biden has become the most politically unpopular leader at this point in a Presidency since the advent of modern polling—even more unpopular than Trump was during the “blue wave” election of 2018. That and a worst-in-four-decades inflation outbreak on Biden’s watch have convinced almost all political observers that the elections this fall are a sure thing for Republicans.

But, over the summer, a new school of what might be called “Trumptimism” has taken hold among some Democratic strategists and independent analysts. In the mess of our current politics, they discern a case for optimism—history-defying, experience-flouting optimism that maybe things won’t work out so badly after all in November. “In the age of Trump, nothing is normal,” Simon Rosenberg, the president of the liberal think tank the New Democrat Network and a veteran strategist, told me, on Thursday. “Nothing is following traditional physics and rules, so why would this midterm?”

Rosenberg, a staunchly public proponent of this view for the past few months, argues that Trump’s continued hold over the Republican Party is actually good news for Democrats this fall—and beyond. Trump, he posits, is not so much killing off his political enemies as he is destroying his own host organism, the G.O.P. itself. CONTINUED

Susan B. Glasser, The New Yorker

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack