Fox News Poll: Barnes edges Johnson in Wisconsin Senate race

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While Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes is narrowly preferred over incumbent Ron Johnson in the Wisconsin Senate race, Johnson’s supporters have the enthusiasm.

A Fox News survey of Wisconsin voters finds Barnes ahead of Johnson by 50-46%, an advantage within the survey’s margin of error. …

Elected in 2018, Gov. Tony Evers ousted Republican incumbent Scott Walker by about 1 point. Today, half of Wisconsin voters approve of the job Evers is doing — and that’s how many would re-elect him. He’s preferred over Republican challenger Tim Michels by 3 points, 49% to 46%. CONTINUED

Dana Blanton, Fox News

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Fox News Poll: Kelly holds 8-point lead over Masters in Arizona Senate race

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Republican candidates have some convincing to do among their base, as Democrats hold the early advantage in battleground Arizona.

The latest Fox News Poll of Arizona registered voters finds incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly with an 8 percentage-point lead over Republican Blake Masters (50% to 42%) in the U.S. Senate race. That’s outside the poll’s margin of error. …

The gender gap is prevalent, with more men supporting Masters by 8 points and more women preferring Kelly by 23 points. …

The same demographic trends apply to the gubernatorial race where there is a smaller gap, but still an edge for current Arizona Secretary of State and Democratic candidate Katie Hobbs over Republican Kari Lake (47% to 44%). That’s within the margin of error. CONTINUED

Victoria Balara, Fox News

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Megastudy identifying successful interventions to strengthen Americans’ democratic attitudes

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Deep partisan conflict in the mass public threatens the stability of American democracy. We conducted a megastudy on a national sample of American partisans (n = 32,059) testing 25 interventions designed to reduce anti-democratic attitudes and partisan animosity. These interventions were selected from a pool of 252 interventions submitted by social scientists, practitioners, and activists as part of the Strengthening Democracy Challenge. Contrary to the expectations of expert forecasters, we find that nearly every selected intervention (23 out of 25) significantly reduced partisan animosity. CONTINUED

Jan G. Voelkel (Stanford), Michael N. Stagnaro (MIT), James Chu (Columbia), Robb Willer (Stanford), et al

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Millennials, Gen X Clinging to Independent Party ID

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Historically, Americans have had weak attachments to the two major U.S. political parties in young adulthood, but as they get older, they usually became more likely to identify as a Republican or a Democrat. That historical pattern, evident in the Silent and baby boom generations, appears to be changing. Generation X and millennials, who are now middle aged or approaching it, have maintained or even expanded their identification as political independents in recent decades. CONTINUED

Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup

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A majority of Americans see an ‘invasion’ at the southern border, NPR poll finds

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More than half of Americans say there’s an “invasion” at the southern border, according to a new NPR/Ipsos poll, part of a broader decline in support for immigrants overall.

The poll also found that large numbers of Americans hold a variety of misconceptions about immigrants — greatly exaggerating their role in smuggling illegal drugs into the U.S., and how likely they are to use public benefits, for example — as false and misleading claims about immigration gain traction. CONTINUED

Joel Rose, NPR News

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The Gubernatorial Races: Look to the West

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Key Points
• The 5 governorships we see as Toss-ups are all located west of the eastern time zone: Arizona, Kansas, Nevada, Wisconsin, and — now — Oregon.
• The large number of incumbents running this year may limit the number of governorships that change hands.
• Democrats continue to have the 2 clearest pickups, the open seats in Maryland and Massachusetts. However, Democrats also are defending 4 of the 5 Toss-ups. CONTINUED

Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Crystal Ball gubernatorial ratings

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