Flip the Script

· Leave a Comment

Earlier this cycle, a seasoned Democratic strategist argued that his party’s success in the midterms wouldn’t be predicated on policy successes but by turning out the 2018/2020 coalition of anti-Trump voters. This strategy, however, of trying to turn the midterms from a referendum on the party in charge to the party out of power has rarely succeeded. …

The last time we saw the out-party become a focal point of a midterm election was in 1998 when Republican attempts to impeach President Clinton backfired. However, Clinton was much more popular than Biden is today. And the political and economic environment was much less volatile (and less polarized) than it is today.

But, Democrats, especially incumbent Senators in key swing states, have built up solid foundation for themselves. Polling in Senate races not only finds Democrats leading in the ballot test, but also holding strong favorable ratings, especially among independent voters. CONTINUED

Amy Walter, Cook Political Report

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Biden’s Approval Ratings: How Much Do they Matter?

· Leave a Comment

… I expect/hope Biden’s numbers will go up in the wake of lower gas prices and a run of important victories. However, his polling swoon this last year has been driven by two factors. Independent voters souring on his leadership and a drop in Democratic support. In 2021, Biden averaged a 91 percent approval rating among Democrats in Gallup’s polling. In July 2022 (before his recent run of success), Biden’s Democratic approval rating was 78 percent.

Though some Democrats are down(ish) on Biden, it doesn’t indicate they plan to vote for a Republican or abstain from voting this fall. In a recent Politico/Morning Consult poll, 80 percent of Democrats approve of the job that Joe Biden is doing as President. However, 94 percent of Democrats say they plan to vote for a Democrat in this year’s Congressional election. That 14-point delta squares the circle between Democrats’ improving odds this fall and Biden’s current approval rating. CONTINUED

Dan Pfeiffer, The Message Box

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Local Public School Ratings Rise, Even as the Teaching Profession Loses Ground

· Leave a Comment

Americans’ ratings of their community’s public schools reached a new high dating back 48 years in this year’s PDK Poll of the Public’s Attitudes Toward the Public Schools, while fewer than ever expressed interest in having their child work as a public school teacher.

Results of the 54th annual PDK Poll tell a tale of conflicted views of public schools — local ratings are at nearly a five-decade high and a majority have trust and confidence in teachers, yet there’s wide recognition that the challenges they face make their jobs broadly undesirable. CONTINUED

PDK International

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Biden’s Job Rating Rises to 44%, Highest in a Year

· Leave a Comment

After hitting a record low in July, President Joe Biden’s job approval rating is up six percentage points to 44%, his highest in a year. While this uptick represents a significant improvement on the heels of several policy successes for Biden, he still remains underwater overall, with 53% of Americans disapproving of his job performance. …

The latest improvement in Biden’s overall approval rating puts him in better standing in the August before midterm elections than five of his predecessors over the past 40 years — Ronald Reagan in 1982, Bill Clinton in 1994, George W. Bush in 2006, Barack Obama in 2014 and Donald Trump in 2018. CONTINUED

Megan Brenan, Gallup

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Roe fell two months ago. Here’s how much it’s hurting the GOP.

· Leave a Comment

Two months ago, the Supreme Court gave Republicans a once-in-a-generation victory in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, ending the constitutional right to abortion. Pro-life Republicans rejoiced, and some red states immediately passed new restrictions on the procedure.

The rejoicing might have been premature. Since Dobbs was handed down, nearly every political data point has shown a portion of voters shifting from Republicans and toward Democrats. This is a sea change from earlier in the year, when Republicans seemed to be building momentum for a red wave.

So how much has Dobbs changed the political landscape? We can get into granular detail by looking at horse-race polls, election results and long-running issue surveys. CONTINUED

David Byler, Washington Post

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

2022’s (Potential) Split Ticket States

· Leave a Comment

Key Points
• Over the past several midterms, the number of states splitting their ticket between Senate and gubernatorial races has gone down.
• Still, using more recent history as a guide, it seems likely that at least a few states will cross over.
• The states that split their ticket in midterms are sometimes — and even often — not the ones that see the most competitive races. CONTINUED

J. Miles Coleman, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

States with Senate and gubernatorial races in 2022

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack