Supreme Court ratings plummet after abortion decision

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Midterm elections are usually a referendum on the party in power in Washington. And in politics “power” tends to be associated with the legislative and executive branches — otherwise known to most Americans in 2022 as the Democratic Congress and the Biden administration.

But this summer has brought a lot of attention to that third branch of government we all learned about in civics: the judiciary. And the latest NBC News poll shows a lot of lost faith around the Supreme Court following this summer’s Dobbs decision, which overturned Roe v. Wade. Let’s start with the most basic measure. Overall feelings about the Court. CONTINUED

Dante Chinni, NBC News

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GOP seat lead shrinks as Biden approval ticks up — CBS News Battleground Tracker poll

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Republicans head into the fall still in position to gain enough House seats for a majority, but a tumultuous summer has made their advantage appear a little smaller today — with a trend so far pointing toward narrow gains instead of a wave. Our CBS News Battleground Tracker estimates Republicans at 226 seats today, down from 230 estimated in July. A majority of 218 is needed to win control. …

Biden’s job approval, and specifically his job ratings on handling bread-and-butter issues like the economy, inflation, and gas prices, have all risen. His overall job approval number is the highest it’s been among registered voters since February. CONTINUED

CBS News

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Once unthinkable, Democrats now see narrow path to keeping the House

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Democrats are voicing growing confidence about limiting losses in the House and potentially even salvaging their majority in the midterm elections, with candidates and allied groups making moves to capitalize on a backlash to abortion restrictions, signs of improvements in the economy and opposition to Donald Trump.

After months of gloomy predictions, Democrats are investing anew in flipping Republican seats. They are also directing more money to protect a roster of their own endangered incumbents — a list party officials said noticeably shrank since the spring. And they are trying to frame contests around abortion rights, putting Republicans on the defensive for strict opposition to the procedure in the wake of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade. CONTINUED

Annie Linskey & Michael Scherer, Washington Post

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Trump is turning the midterms from a referendum into a choice

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It’s long been said that midterm elections are all about the current occupant of the White House — a referendum on the incumbent and his party. But do the old rules and assumptions apply as they once did? Because of Donald Trump, they may not this year. …

Trump has been the energizing force in politics since he announced for president in 2015, mobilizing voters behind his candidacy and once in office triggering an even bigger backlash against him. This November’s election will still be a reckoning for President Biden and the Democrats, given inflationary pressures and disapproval with the incumbent’s job performance. But Republicans cannot escape the reality that Trump and his Make America Great Again, or MAGA, movement are also part of the reckoning that will take place. CONTINUED

Dan Balz, Washington Post

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Two in five Americans say a civil war is at least somewhat likely in the next decade

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New polling by the Economist and YouGov asked Americans about changes in the U.S. political climate, including whether divisions have worsened and what they expect in the future. We find that most Americans believe divisions have gotten worse since the start of 2021 and most expect them to grow in the coming years. Two in five Americans believe a civil war is at least somewhat likely in the next decade; Republicans are more likely than Democrats to expect civil war. CONTINUED

Taylor Orth, YouGov

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Many are still feeling the inflationary pain

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Jerome Powell, the head of the Fed, indicated today that he will keep raising interest rates to bring down inflation. He also pointed to the likelihood that these moves will inflict some amount of economic pain on consumers and businesses. The recessionary marks are sounding.

Even with some hopeful readings on inflation recently, this is likely nowhere near the end. Gas prices are coming down but rent and food costs remain high.

In light of all of this, we revisit where Americans are on inflation, who is being hurt the most by this, and what people are expecting from the future. CONTINUED

Clifford Young & Sarah Feldman, Ipsos

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