Are the Forecast Models just plain Wrong?

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I like to put together a little economic forecast model around this point in an election cycle. Not so much because I’m trying to predict what’ll happen — there are more sophisticated ways to do that — but because I want to get a sense of a baseline. That is, what are the fundamentals of this year? Once we know that, we can get a bit of a sense of how other variables — campaigning, candidate quality, etc. — are performing.

In 2022, however, what traditional forecast models are telling is wildly different from what everything else is telling us. CONTINUED

Seth Masket (U. of Denver), Mischiefs of Faction

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Biden approval surges, rebounds to highest level since May

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A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that President Biden’s job-approval rating has shot up 5 percentage points since early August — its largest and most sudden change to date.

The president’s disapproval number, meanwhile, has fallen by 3 percentage points. Never before has Biden’s overall rating shifted that much in a matter of weeks. …

To be sure, Biden’s overall rating is still negative: 40% approve to 53% disapprove. That is his best number, however, since May, and it appears to signal two welcome trends for the White House: improving perceptions of the state of the U.S. economy and rebounding confidence in Biden among Democrats and independents. CONTINUED

Andrew Romano, Yahoo News

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Four’s a trend: Democrats are doing much better in special elections since Roe was overturned

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A special election, on its own, cannot tell us much about the political environment. Grouped together, special elections can tell a story.

And in the case of special elections for the US House since Roe v. Wade was overturned, the story is clear: The national environment has become far more favorable to Democrats over the past two months.

Prior to the US Supreme Court ruling that there was no longer a federal constitutional right to an abortion, Republicans were doing quite well in special House elections. They were outperforming the 2020 presidential baseline by an average of 6 points. This had been a very good sign for the party ahead of the 2022 midterm elections.

Since the high court decision, there have been four special House elections. The results share one thing in common: Democrats did better than Joe Biden in all of them. CONTINUED

Harry Enten, CNN

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Growing Evidence Against a Republican Wave

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At the beginning of this year’s midterm campaign, analysts and political operatives had every reason to expect a strong Republican showing this November. President Biden’s approval rating was in the low 40s, and the president’s party has a long history of struggling in midterm elections.

But as the start of the general election campaign nears, it’s becoming increasingly hard to find any concrete signs of Republican strength.

Tuesday’s strong Democratic showing in a special congressional election in New York’s 19th District is only the latest example. CONTINUED

Nate Cohn, New York Times

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California: Voters overwhelmingly back the state’s constitutional amendment on abortion rights

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Eight in ten California voters (81%) consider abortion to be of importance to them when voting in this year’s Congressional and other state and local elections. In particular, 63% rate the issue “very important.” In addition, 71% say they would vote Yes on Proposition One, a constitutional amendment on the November statewide election ballot that would prohibit the state from denying or interfering with a woman’s right to an abortion and guarantees access to contraceptives. CONTINUED

Mark DiCamillo, Berkeley IGS Poll

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Biden approval rises to 41%, highest since early June, Reuters/Ipsos finds

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U.S. President Joe Biden’s public approval rating rose this week to its highest level since early June, following a series of legislative wins for his Democratic Party, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll completed on Tuesday.

The two-day national poll found that 41% of Americans approve of Biden’s job performance. It was his first time above 40% since early June. CONTINUED

Jason Lange, Reuters

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