The Politics of the Child Tax Credit

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In the American Rescue Plan, passed at the outset of the Biden administration, Congress greatly expanded the Child Tax Credit (CTC) to virtually all families with children, and paid it out monthly for the first time. …

The expanded Child Tax Credit is expensive, but it is an investment. Economists have found that taxpayers get 84 cents back for every dollar spent in children being healthier with decreased health care costs, less costs for child protection and foster care, and higher wages and taxes paid. The investment pays off tenfold, as children get more education and training, there is less crime, parents earn more money and pay more taxes, and people are healthier and live longer.

But if the Child Tax Credit is really going to become “Social Security for children,” then it also must be good politics.

Fortunately, it is. CONTINUED

Stanley B. Greenberg (Greenberg Research), American Prospect

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Positive Views of Supreme Court Decline Sharply Following Abortion Ruling

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Americans’ ratings of the Supreme Court are now as negative as – and more politically polarized than – at any point in more than three decades of polling on the nation’s highest court.

Following a term which saw the Dobbs v. Jackson ruling ending the federal guarantee of the right to abortion along with several other high profile cases that often split the justices along largely ideological lines, this shift in views of the court has been driven by a transformation in Democrats’ views. CONTINUED

Pew Research Center

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Ron DeSantis Is a Test Case

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The fact that Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, is favored to win re-election is a clear warning to those worried about declining support for democratic institutions and values in the United States.

The prospect of DeSantis’s re-election in November suggests that under certain circumstances the American electorate will tolerate, if not actively embrace, the abuse of traditional political norms by domineering leaders. A DeSantis victory would also demonstrate that the hostility of many mainstream voters to controversial liberal initiatives on social and cultural issues is strong enough to generate formidable backlash.

DeSantis has made no secret of his intent to use executive authority to the fullest extent. On taking office, DeSantis told a Hillsdale College gathering in Naples, Fla., last February, “The first thing I said to the general counsel was: ‘I want you to give me a binder of all the authorities of the governor. What can I do as a matter of constitutional right without anybody checking me?’” …

That DeSantis has pushed these boundaries is no surprise. What is surprising is the absence of strong, organized opposition in a purple state. Why? One answer is that his policies have substantial support. CONTINUED

Thomas B. Edsall, New York Times

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The shadow stalking Democrats’ improving numbers: Can polls be trusted?

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Over the past two months, FiveThirtyEight’s average of congressional ballot polling has shifted from a two-point Republican advantage to a half-point Democratic one. Its average of approval polling for President Biden has gone from Biden being underwater by 17 points (that is, his “disapprove” percentage is 17 points higher than his “approve”) to a more modest 11 points. Speaking a bit more figuratively, Democrats generally have moved from a position of panicked hyperventilation to one of cautious breath-holding.

But then there’s that shadow that follows the party around like a rain cloud: What if the polls are wrong? Or, really: What if the polls are wrong again? CONTINUED

Philip Bump, Washington Post

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U.S. Economic Confidence Improving but Still Weak

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Americans are significantly less negative in their evaluations of the U.S. economy than they were in July, with Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index improving from -51 to -39. The index recently hit a 13-year low of -58 in June, the worst since the Great Recession. Confidence has now returned to the levels it was at in March and April. CONTINUED

Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup

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Senate Rating Changes: Arizona, Pennsylvania to Leans Democratic

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Key Points
• We are moving the Senate races in Arizona and Pennsylvania from Toss-up to Leans Democratic on account of candidate weaknesses for Republicans in both states and what appears to be a not-as-bleak environment for Democrats.
• The overall race for the Senate remains a Toss-up, with 49 seats at least leaning to each party and a couple of Toss-ups overall, Georgia and Nevada. CONTINUED

Kyle Kondik & J. Miles Coleman, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Crystal Ball Senate ratings

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