Senate Rating Changes: Arizona, Pennsylvania to Leans Democratic

· Leave a Comment

Key Points
• We are moving the Senate races in Arizona and Pennsylvania from Toss-up to Leans Democratic on account of candidate weaknesses for Republicans in both states and what appears to be a not-as-bleak environment for Democrats.
• The overall race for the Senate remains a Toss-up, with 49 seats at least leaning to each party and a couple of Toss-ups overall, Georgia and Nevada. CONTINUED

Kyle Kondik & J. Miles Coleman, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Crystal Ball Senate ratings

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

CBS News polling analysis: What do people think of defunding law enforcement?

· Leave a Comment

Some politicians and activists have called for defunding the FBI, while others have called for defunding the police. It turns out neither of these resonates much with the public.

Defunding the FBI is not a popular political stance with voters. Few would be more likely to back a candidate who supported this.

Some Republicans have called for defunding the FBI, but it’s not a candidate position that finds favor with most rank-and-file Republicans. Republicans would be less likely to back a candidate who called for defunding. Just a third would be more likely to vote for a political candidate who called for doing that. CONTINUED

Jennifer De Pinto, CBS News

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Consumer Confidence Improved in August

· Leave a Comment

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in August, following three consecutive monthly declines. The Index now stands at 103.2 (1985=100), up from 95.3 in July. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—improved to 145.4 from 139.7 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—increased to 75.1 from 65.6. CONTINUED

Conference Board

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Approval of Labor Unions at Highest Point Since 1965

· Leave a Comment

Seventy-one percent of Americans now approve of labor unions. Although statistically similar to last year’s 68%, it is up from 64% before the pandemic and is the highest Gallup has recorded on this measure since 1965. CONTINUED

Justin McCarthy, Gallup

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

From a Republican ‘tsunami’ to a ‘puddle’: Why the forecast for November is changing

· Leave a Comment

It was a referendum. Now it’s a choice. For political professionals in both parties, that’s the capsule explanation for why the Democratic position in the midterm elections appears to have improved so much since summer began.

When the election looked to be primarily a referendum on the performance of the Democrats who control the White House and Congress, Republicans were optimistic that a towering “red wave” would carry them to sweeping gains in November.

But with evidence suggesting more voters are treating the election as a comparative choice between the two parties, operatives on both sides are bracing for a closely contested outcome that could include an unusual divergence in results for the House and those in Senate and governor races. CONTINUED

Ronald Brownstein, CNN

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

More than a quarter of U.S. adults say they fear being attacked in their neighborhood

· Leave a Comment

A new Harvard/NPR poll notes that fear is a rising reality among people of color. Americans of color were more likely than white Americans to say they feared being threatened or physically attacked.

Alana Wise, NPR News

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack