Which Way Is the Wind Blowing?

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By this point in a typical midterm year, it’s pretty obvious which way the wind is blowing. Perceptions of the president and his party have been settled. The issue environment is also well-defined. This year, however, it feels as if both are in flux. But, are they? …

By October of most mid-term elections, political gravity has kicked in. Members of the president’s party have spent much of the year putting distance between themselves and an unpopular commander-in-chief. But, a month out from the election, the pull of partisanship and polarization becomes too much for the candidates to overcome. This October, however, there’s evidence to suggest that Democrat candidates continue to defy political gravity. CONTINUED

Amy Walter, Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

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CNN Polls: Democrat holds edge in Arizona Senate race while Nevada contest has no clear leader

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New CNN polling in two critical Senate battlegrounds finds that Arizona Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly holds a narrow lead over Republican challenger Blake Masters, while there is no clear leader in the race in Nevada between Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and her GOP opponent, Adam Laxalt.

The Arizona poll finds that 51% of likely voters are behind Kelly, with 45% backing Masters. In Nevada, 48% of likely voters support Laxalt, with 46% behind Cortez Masto.

The polls suggest the underlying political climate in each state favors the GOP. Voters in both states are more likely to say the country will be better off than worse off if Republicans are in control of Congress (among registered voters, 44% to 35% in Nevada, 44% to 38% in Arizona), and President Joe Biden’s approval ratings break negative (39% approve and 60% disapprove in each state). CONTINUED

Jennifer Agiesta, CNN

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Public Interest in Having a Third Major Party Dips to 56%

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After reaching a high of 62% at the start of 2021, the percentage of Americans believing the existing political parties “do such a poor job that a third major party is needed” has returned to a more typical 56%.

At the same time, four in 10 Americans do not see the need for a third party, agreeing that “the Republican and Democratic parties do an adequate job of representing the American people.” CONTINUED

Lydia Saad, Gallup

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NPR poll shows Biden’s approval rating is up but there are warning signs for Democrats

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With just over a month to go in the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats are starting to rally around President Biden, according to the latest NPR/Marist poll.

Biden’s approval rating is up to 44%, which marks a third straight month of improvement. He had bottomed out in July at about 36%. Democrats are also largely keeping pace with Republicans on enthusiasm about the elections this fall, a continued trend after the Supreme Court’s June Dobbs decision, which overturned the guaranteed right to an abortion in this country.

Those are good signs for Democrats, but there are warnings, too — 7 in 10 respondents said they think the country is headed in the wrong direction, and inflation continues to rank as the top issue voters say they will be thinking about when they cast a ballot. CONTINUED

Domenico Montanaro, NPR News

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The 2022 Ad Wars

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Key Points
• To get a flavor of the 2022 ad messages from both sides, we watched nearly 350 campaign ads that came out in the second half of September.
• Abortion dominates Democratic messaging, while Republicans are much less likely to mention it. Crime has become a huge focus for Republicans, with Democrats trying to inoculate themselves by featuring law enforcement officers in their ads.
• Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi are frequently cited in Republican attack ads, but other politicians make cameos in ads not directly related to their states/districts. CONTINUED

Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

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Hispanics: The newest swing voter

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… Hispanic voters are becoming a key part of swing voters that both parties are going to have compete for to build a majority coalition. However, these voters will be more difficult to reach with narrow, base issues. When either party runs base campaigns, they are simply not talking to Hispanics in today’s political environment, and likely tomorrow’s as well.

To win the Hispanic vote, candidates have to offer policies that appeal to the same economic concerns that traditionally have characterized independents. CONTINUED

David Winston (Winston Group), Roll Call

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