Johnson and Barnes in tight Senate race in Wisconsin; Whitmer leads Dixon for governor in Michigan

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It seems like Wisconsin elections are always pretty close these days, and here are two more following that trend. The Senate race has incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson running just one point ahead of Democrat Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes in a toss-up contest, and the governor’s race is currently even between incumbent Democrat Gov. Tony Evers and Republican Tim Michels. …

Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer leads Republican challenger Tudor Dixon by six points in her reelection bid. … The issue of abortion will be directly on the ballot here. Most Michigan voters say abortion should be legal in all or most cases in the state, and a majority would vote “yes” on Proposal 3, which would amend the state’s constitution and establish a right to abortion. CONTINUED

CBS News

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Women powered Democrats in the 2018 midterms. Will they again in 2022?

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… In the coming weeks, The Washington Post will be looking at some of the voters who will decide the fate of the next Congress, and assessing whether Democrats can maintain the coalition that propelled them to victories in 2018 and 2020. This “Deciders” series begins with a look from Colorado and how some women in Denver and its suburbs view the country, the issues, their families and themselves. …

Suburban women have been given various labels over the years and have drawn the interest of campaign strategists because they are seen as swing voters (though some scholars question whether they are). At one point, these suburban voters were called “soccer moms,” at another, “security moms.” But the recent focus on women owes largely to the divergence in partisan support between White women with college degrees and White women who do not have college degrees.

In recent elections, college-educated White women moved toward the Democrats; White women without college degrees, who make up a larger share of the electorate than those with degrees, moved toward the GOP. In 2014, 47 percent of White women with college degrees voted Democratic, according to calculations by Catalist, a Democrat-aligned data firm; by 2018, 57 percent backed Democrats.

White college-educated women have been described as a core part of the Democratic coalition, based on this shift. But the question of whether there will be movement back toward Republicans in November is of prime interest to campaign strategists. CONTINUED

Dan Balz, Washington Post

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When marijuana is on the ballot, it wins

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Marijuana, at times, seems to be a third rail in American politics. While most Democrats are ardent defenders of abortion rights and gay rights, many party lawmakers are less vocal about decriminalizing or legalizing marijuana. It was only Thursday when President Joe Biden decided to pardon all people convicted of federal marijuana possession.

I’m not really sure why it took so long. Democratic voters are overwhelmingly for marijuana legalization, and marijuana tends to be a political winner when it appears on the ballot. …

It shouldn’t be too surprising that marijuana does well when put in front of the voters across both blue and red states. It’s an issue on which there is actually fairly large policy agreement between Democrats and Republicans. CONTINUED

Harry Enten, CNN

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Americans are worried about mental health and unsatisfied with the mental health care system

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The conditions set by the pandemic created a crisis where one was already brewing. Humans are social creatures and need to interact with other humans. The pandemic curtailed our ability to meet these basic needs. After weeks, months, and years of extreme change and isolation, mental health is now a pressing issue for many Americans.

Mental health care professionals and the system at large are stretched. Most Americans can see and feel that when reaching out for help.

This week, in anticipation of World Mental Health Day on Monday, we look at Americans’ mental health and feelings toward the health care system. CONTINUED

Clifford Young & Sarah Feldman, Ipsos

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Will the Herschel Walker Allegations Actually Matter?

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I don’t think there’s a question I’m asked more often than: “Will this matter” on Election Day?

Usually, the question follows the latest gaffe or breaking news that casts a candidate in a bad light. And usually, my answer is, “No, it will not matter” — or at least a version of “no.” The country is deeply polarized, and voters have a short memory.

This week, I’ve been getting that question about the Georgia Senate race. As you’ve probably heard, the Republican nominee Herschel Walker reportedly paid a woman to have an abortion. The woman, who shared her story with The Daily Beast, said she was not only an ex-girlfriend, but also the mother of one of Mr. Walker’s children. Mr. Walker has denied the allegation.

It’s too soon to look to polling to judge the political fallout. … But regardless of what the next surveys say, I think my short answer to the familiar “will this matter” question is “yes” — or at least a version of “yes.” CONTINUED

Nate Cohn, New York Times

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What Will Happen in Georgia?

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… Young adults have become an essential electoral asset for Democrats—and loom as a potentially decisive factor in determining whether the party can avoid the worst outcomes up and down the ballot this November. In particular, young voters may decide whether Democrats can preserve the fragile hold on the Senate that Georgia provided to them. …

Compared with older generations, Millennials and members of Generation Z are more racially diverse, more likely to hold postsecondary degrees, and less likely to identify with any religious tradition. Both cohorts have leaned sharply Democratic since the first Millennials entered the electorate in large numbers in the 2004 election; the party has routinely carried about three-fifths of young adults in recent presidential contests. …

Although different public surveys have sent different signals about youth engagement, the latest IOP youth survey, which is considered a benchmark in the field, found that as many young people said they “definitely” intend to vote this fall as did in 2018.

That prospect points toward an incremental but inexorable power shift. In 2020, for the first time, Millennials and Gen Z roughly equaled Baby Boomers and their elders as a share of eligible voters. By 2024, the younger generations will establish a clear advantage. As their numbers grow, so does their capacity to influence the national direction. There’s no guarantee they will exercise that inherent power next month by turning out to vote in large numbers. But more young people appear to be recognizing how much their choices can matter. CONTINUED

Ronald Brownstein, The Atlantic

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