Arizona: Mark Kelly has edge in Senate race that hinges on abortion, economy, immigration

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Arizona is another battleground where strong opposing forces underpin the race.

Democratic candidates enjoy stronger personal ratings, while Republican voters are thinking more about national Senate control. There’s a tough economy and desire for tougher border controls helping Republicans, versus abortion helping Democrats.

And in this state that was so close in 2020, election denialism does not find favor beyond a handful of those in the Republican base – nor do voters want it to be a campaign focus. CONTINUED

CBS News

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The real gap on abortion views isn’t about sex, it’s about gender

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… The problem with an analysis of abortion views based on sex is that it’s conflating two concepts: sex and gender. There aren’t many social scientists who are going to argue that someone’s reproductive organs make them hold certain social or political views; rather, it’s the way that those organs shape the way that they’re raised, the roles they adopt in society, and the corresponding differences in the way that they’re treated and how they view their own role in society. Put another way, social and political views aren’t driven by sex so much as gender: a distinction that often gets overlooked because social scientists and pollsters generally don’t ask about gender (and are often squeamish about asking questions about sex, relying instead on telephone interviewers’ judgment about a respondent’s voice). CONTINUED

Dan Cassino (Fairleigh Dickinson), LSE USAPP

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Government Agency Ratings: CIA, FBI Up; Federal Reserve Down

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Gallup’s latest update on federal government agency and department ratings finds a partial recovery in attitudes toward the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) after sharp declines between 2019 and 2021. Meanwhile, Americans have soured on the job the Federal Reserve Board is doing as it tries to battle inflation. Ratings of other agencies are generally stable, with NASA and the Postal Service getting the most positive evaluations. Gallup’s initial rating of the Department of Justice is among the lowest tested, with about as many saying it is doing a poor job as an excellent or good one. CONTINUED

Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup

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Pennsylvania: Common Touch Key to Senate Race

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Democrat John Fetterman is seen as understanding the concerns of ordinary Pennsylvanians more than Republican Mehmet Oz, according to the latest Monmouth University Poll of the U.S. Senate race. Fetterman maintains an overall advantage on being trusted more to handle key issues, including those prioritized by independents and Republicans.

Fetterman has a personal rating of 48% favorable to 44% unfavorable, which is similar to his 47%–42% rating three weeks ago. Nearly half (48%) of the electorate will either definitely or probably vote for him in November, which is similar to his 49% support level in Monmouth’s prior poll, except that his “definite” support has increased from 32% to 37%. Oz continues to hold a net negative personal rating of 36% favorable to 53% unfavorable, which is similar to three weeks ago (36%–52%). He has seen a slight increase in his support for U.S. Senate from 39% three weeks ago to 43% in the current poll, although only 25% are definitely backing the Republican at this stage. Also, slightly more Pennsylvania voters continue to say they definitely will not vote for Oz (46%) than completely rule out Fetterman (40%). CONTINUED

Monmouth University Polling Institute

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Horse-race polls are not fixable

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The biggest “problem” with horse-race polling isn’t fixable.

The entire concept of polling depends on having a set population from which one can take a random sample and get a generally representative snapshot. Pre-election polls have no existing population—the election hasn’t happened yet, and voting isn’t compulsory in the U.S., so we simply don’t have a population of who voted until all the polls have closed on Election Day.

We can’t remedy that. The population of voters will never exist prior to the election. Expecting polls to be able to consistently, accurately predict an election is asking more than is statistically and theoretically possible. CONTINUED

Natalie Jackson, National Journal

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Midterm polls swing back to the right

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Over the past few months, Democrats have enjoyed an unexpected feeling of optimism, as polling has shown their party unexpectedly competitive in House and Senate races. Maybe, despite the political gravity tugging their party down, they might be able to hold the Senate? Maybe both chambers? In less-realistic iterations, that optimism held that a massive surge of energy — fury, in particular — could lead to a blue wave that swept Democrats into office even in darker-red states.

It is still the case that Democrats might hold both chambers. But optimism is relative, and much of the optimism of the summer was that things wouldn’t be as bad as other indicators (like presidential approval) might suggest. Over the past week or two, though, the slow shift to the left that had been seen in the polls since the early summer began to stall or reverse. CONTINUED

Philip Bump, Washington Post

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