It wasn’t just “the economy stupid”—it was abortion

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… Inflation is unpopular with both parties—there is no pro-inflation and anti-inflation party. In fact, if we’ve learned anything about politics in our polarized time it’s that voters see almost all issues through their partisan lens. Democrats worried about inflation could think that Joe Biden was dealing with it and Republicans that Joe Biden caused it. But abortion is different. One party is clearly in favor of keeping it legal in most or all circumstances and the other is not.

If you put together the sheer size of the women’s vote, the intensity of the issue and the fact that, unlike inflation or the economy, the two parties have stark differences on the issue, you get a powerful driver of the vote. There were five states with abortion referenda on the ballot and in every single one—including the deep red state of Kentucky—the pro-choice position won. In Michigan, where the abortion referendum won by 13.4 percent, it is not far-fetched to assume that it helped the Democrats keep several congressional seats. And in Pennsylvania, where abortion topped inflation by 9 points, Democrats picked up the only Senate seat so far. CONTINUED

Elaine Kamarck & William A. Galston, Brookings Institution

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The Whackadoodle Factor (with Jonathan Martin)

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The midterm special hackathon extravaganza is finally here and we couldn’t think of a better guest to join us than POLITICO’s Politics Bureau Chief and Senior Columnist, Jonathan Martin. The Hacks discuss the results we have from the midterms and breakdown what that means for control of the Senate, House, and eventually The White House!

Hacks on Tap podcast

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For Republicans, Crime Pays, No Matter What Else Happens

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In the months leading up to Election Day, the Republican Party conducted an advertising campaign focused on crime and social disorder, on looting and shoplifting in big cities across the country. They tried to associate Democrats with “defund the police” messages that are, in fact, voiced by a very small minority of party members, but that appear to have undercut mainstream Democrats running in key races, including many who nonetheless hung on to their seats. The issue isn’t going away anytime soon and may well play a major role in 2024. …

In an Oct. 19 essay, “The Slogan Hurting Democrats’ Election Chances,” Paul Begala, a Democratic strategist, wrote, “In my many years in politics, I have never seen a more destructive slogan than ‘defund the police.’”

“The overwhelming majority of Americans — including most Black Americans and most Democrats — oppose defunding police,” Begala wrote. “Still, the political damage from that slogan has been real.”

What, then, to do? CONTINUED

Thomas B. Edsall, New York Times

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Trump’s GOP Primary Support Has Ebbed Ahead of Potential 2024 Announcement

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Former President Donald Trump is poised to launch his third presidential bid with the bulk of the Republican Party’s electorate behind him, boosted by his handling of the economy and illegal immigration and his pugilistic posture toward the Democrats.

However, the most recent Morning Consult surveys show signs of erosion in that support, and with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis waiting in the wings with his own potential campaign, a new experiment testing candidate traits suggests the former president’s age, obsession with social media and behavior following his 2020 loss are weighing on potential primary voters who aren’t currently planning to back him or DeSantis. CONTINUED

Eli Yokley, Morning Consult

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Worry About Catching COVID-19 Lowest Since June 2021

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Twenty-eight percent of Americans say they are “very” or “somewhat worried” they will get COVID-19 — the lowest percentage Gallup has recorded since the summer of 2021.

The latest findings, collected in Gallup’s Oct. 11-19 COVID-19 probability-based web panel survey, come as a new high of Americans say they believe the pandemic is “over.” CONTINUED

Justin McCarthy, Gallup

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David Shor’s (Premature) Autopsy of the 2022 Midterm Elections

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The Democratic Party entered the 2022 midterms saddled with a historically unpopular president and an inflationary economy. And yet the party is exiting them as the election’s clear winner. In fact, Democrats put up one of the best midterm performances for an in-power party ever.

David Shor believes that he knows why. The founder of the Democratic data firm Blue Rose Research, Shor has gained prominence in recent years by evangelizing for “popularism,” a theory of electoral politics that emphasizes the importance of adopting poll-tested issue positions and exercising message discipline, among other things.

The debate over how to interpret the 2022 midterm is just beginning. Votes are still being tallied. But Shor believes that the completed results tell a coherent story. I spoke with him about the role that abortion played in Democrats’ success, the burdens that Donald Trump imposed on the GOP, and why he believes his party owes its success to persuasion rather than base mobilization. CONTINUED

Eric Levitz, New York Magazine

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