How the 2022 Midterms Became a Squeaker

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… How the midterms turned out so improbably was, in many ways, a function of forces beyond Democrats’ control. A Supreme Court decision that stripped away a half-century of abortion rights galvanized their base. A polarizing, unpopular and ever-present former president, Donald J. Trump, provided the type of ready-made foil whom White Houses rarely enjoy.

But interviews with more than 70 people — party strategists, lawmakers and current and former White House officials — also revealed crucial tactical decisions, strategic miscalculations, misreading of polls, infighting and behind-the-scenes maneuvering in both parties that led the G.O.P. to blow its chance at a blowout.

In the end, Democrats defied both history and the political gravity of Mr. Biden’s low approval ratings, while Republicans squandered what some saw as a once-in-a-generation opportunity to seize power. CONTINUED

Shane Goldmacher, New York Times

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Where the NBC News poll got things right: ‘We have really strong tools to explain’ what happened

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As Tuesday’s first results trickled in, Republicans saw their hopes for a red wave vanish, in what was a surprise to many onlookers — but not for the pollsters we work with at NBC News. Bill McInturff, co-founder of Public Opinion Strategies, Jeff Horwitt, senior vice president at Hart Research, and Dante Chinni, director of the American Communities Project, join Chuck to detail how public opinion presaged the unique nature of this year’s midterm votes.

The Chuck ToddCast, NBC News

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The (good) pollsters got the midterms right

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… This year, the polls did very well. By some measures, in fact, the Senate polls tied their best performance on record — the last great performance being in 2006. This was, of course, predictable; I wrote a whole book about why people who said the polls were broken were wrong. But how is it that they did so well? And have pollsters fixed the problems that threw off their estimates in 2020 and 2016?

It will take months for pollsters to conduct their official post-mortems, but here are some things we know right now. CONTINUED

G. Elliott Morris, Politics by the Numbers

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How Abortion Boosted Democratic Candidates in Tuesday’s Midterm Election

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While inflation was clearly at the top of voters’ minds in this year’s midterm elections, the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade played a significant role in motivating key voting blocs that likely contributed to the Democratic party’s stronger-than-expected performance, a new analysis of KFF’s supplemental questions on the Associated Press VoteCast survey of midterm voters.

About four in ten (38%) voters overall said that the Supreme Court decision ending the constitutional right to an abortion had a major impact on their decision about whether to vote in this year’s election. The share citing the decision as a major motivator was highest among Black women under age 50 (61%), Hispanic women under age 50 (58%), those who voted for Democratic Congressional candidates (56%), first-time voters (54%), voters under age 30 (53%), and those who said they were angry about the Supreme Court’s abortion decision (55%).

While the election results reflect voters’ views about individual candidates and other factors, in terms of issues, the analysis suggest that abortion worked as a counterweight to voters’ broader concerns about inflation, which favored Republican candidates. CONTINUED

Kaiser Family Foundation

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How Polls Did in the 2022 Midterms

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Now that the votes are in and mostly counted, how did we do? We’re looking at our results and those of other pollsters. We’re also talking about how poll products like forecasters and aggregators misled people about the likelihood of a red wave. CONTINUED

Poll Hub podcast, Marist Institute for Public Opinion

The Accurate Election Polls That No One Believed

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… What is clear is that the polls, such as they were, provided a decent view of what was happening in most of the Senate and gubernatorial races. (The House numbers are still incomplete, but the national outcome also seems on track with what the polls predicted.) A week ago, if you had been looking solely at polls and given less thought to the general political environment—a shaky economy, an angry populace, an unpopular President leading his party through his first midterm—you would have come away with a better picture of what happened on Tuesday. … Whether the polls being more accurate than the “vibes” is comforting or scary depends on how you felt about polls to begin with. CONTINUED

Isaac Chotiner, The New Yorker

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