Why Republicans are in trouble: Trump and the abortion issue aren’t going away

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Donald Trump is now in a stronger position to win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination than he has been in months as his party rallies around him following his indictment by a New York grand jury on business fraud charges. But actual results on the ground continue to suggest that the former president may not be good for the Republican brand among the general electorate.

On the day of Trump’s arraignment in Manhattan on Tuesday, Democratic-backed Janet Protasiewicz celebrated victory in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election as liberals won control of the high court in the ultimate swing state. That result is just part of a larger story in which Democrats and Democratic-backed candidates across the nation have been performing better in elections this year than Joe Biden did in their states or districts in 2020. And it potentially portends well for Democrats’ 2024 fortunes. CONTINUED

Harry Enten, CNN

Video: Polls show why banning abortion pills could be a bad move for Republicans

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American division on Trump indictment deepens

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In a second poll fielded a week after news broke about former President Donald Trump’s indictment on charges related to falsifying business records in hush money payments, the divisions among Americans regarding Trump continue to deepen. This comes as independents and people who were undecided on this issue last week look to be moving away from the former president by small margins. The poll also finds that a majority of Americans believe Trump intentionally acted illegally.

Currently, just over half of Americans (52%) view the charges against Trump as serious, up 2 percentage points from last week. Additionally, half of Americans (50%) say Trump should have been charged with a crime in this case, up 5 percentage points from last week. CONTINUED

Chris Jackson, Mallory Newall, Johnny Sawyer & Tyler Ivey, Ipsos

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Majority of Americans believe Trump did something illegal

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With former President Donald Trump now formally charged on criminal charges, a majority of Americans (53%) believe he intentionally did something illegal, according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll. An additional 11% say he acted wrongly but not intentionally. Only 20% believe Trump did not do anything wrong, and 16% say they don’t know, per the ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted using Ipsos’ KnowledgePanel. …

Democrats are largely convinced of Trump’s culpability, with 87% saying he intentionally did something illegal, and a majority of independents (57%) agree.

Of note, the former president is enjoying weaker-than-usual support from his own partisans with only a plurality of Republicans (45%) thinking Trump did nothing wrong, and the rest of the party split among the belief he intentionally did something illegal (19%), he was wrong but it was unintentional (18%) or they simply do not know (17%). CONTINUED

Brittany Shepherd, ABC News

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How abortion changes election maps

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A Wisconsin election set the stage last week for Democrats to act on a range of issues in the state, from gerrymandering to election access — but the biggest driving force behind the result was abortion.

Abortion has been illegal in Wisconsin since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June with its Dobbs decision. And Janet Protasiewicz, whose victory in the state Supreme Court race gave liberals a 4-3 majority, made it the fulcrum of her campaign. It was a dominant factor in her ads, and a case challenging the state’s 1849 abortion law is expected to start making its way through the Wisconsin courts next month.

The Wisconsin result is just the latest bit of evidence that abortion is having a transformative impact on American politics. For decades, abortion has been a bedrock organizing issue for GOP candidates who want to turn out their vote, but post-Dobbs, it seems the script has flipped. With Roe overturned, abortion is changing turnout and the political balance of power in states where it is on the ballot, and that’s creating real problems for Republicans. CONTINUED

Dante Chinni, NBC News

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How to Make Trump Go Away

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After more than three decades in and around politics, I now spend most of my time grappling with political questions in the classroom and in focus groups. There is one conundrum that fascinates me above others: Why does Donald Trump still generate such loyalty and devotion? And unlike 2016, can a different Republican win the nomination in 2024 who largely shares Mr. Trump’s agenda but not his personality? …

So consider this a playbook for potential Republican candidates and for G.O.P. voters and conservative independents wanting someone other than Mr. Trump in 2024, a strategic road map based on informed experiences with Trump voters for the past eight years. This is what I’ve learned from these focus groups and research. CONTINUED

Frank Luntz, New York Times

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Abortion was a 50/50 issue. Now, it’s Republican quicksand.

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Conservatives are finding out the hard way that abortion isn’t a 50-50 issue anymore. Janet Protasiewicz’s 11-point blowout victory this week for a state Supreme Court seat in Wisconsin was just the latest example of voters who support abortion rights outnumbering — and outvoting — their opponents. …

Going back to the 1990s, Gallup polling showed Americans divided roughly evenly between those who called themselves “pro-life” and “pro-choice.” Exit polls from the 1990s and 2000s showed voters who said abortion or “moral values” were most important to their vote supported Republican candidates in greater numbers. …

But the data is now getting clearer. The Roe v. Wade framework — making abortion mostly legal, but allowing states to impose modest restrictions — is where the majority of American voters are. From the midterms, to Wisconsin, potentially to the 2024 elections, they’re continuing to punish the party that’s straying the furthest from that. CONTINUED

Steven Shepard, Politico

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