Independent Voters Now Tilting Toward Democrats in Midterm Elections, WSJ Poll Finds

Democrats are entering the homestretch before November’s election in better shape than earlier this year, boosted by gains among independent voters, improved views of President Biden and higher voting enthusiasm among abortion-rights supporters, a Wall Street Journal poll shows. Republicans have electoral fuel to tap into if they can keep […] Read more »

Ron DeSantis Is a Test Case

The fact that Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, is favored to win re-election is a clear warning to those worried about declining support for democratic institutions and values in the United States. The prospect of DeSantis’s re-election in November suggests that under certain circumstances the American electorate will tolerate, […] Read more »

The shadow stalking Democrats’ improving numbers: Can polls be trusted?

Over the past two months, FiveThirtyEight’s average of congressional ballot polling has shifted from a two-point Republican advantage to a half-point Democratic one. Its average of approval polling for President Biden has gone from Biden being underwater by 17 points (that is, his “disapprove” percentage is 17 points higher than […] Read more »