Americans continue to believe democracy and the rule of law are under threat — a view that’s remained high over the last year and is at 72% today — though they believe that for an assortment of reasons. The influence of money in politics tops the list of reasons, among […] Read more »
Independent Voters Now Tilting Toward Democrats in Midterm Elections, WSJ Poll Finds
Democrats are entering the homestretch before November’s election in better shape than earlier this year, boosted by gains among independent voters, improved views of President Biden and higher voting enthusiasm among abortion-rights supporters, a Wall Street Journal poll shows. Republicans have electoral fuel to tap into if they can keep […] Read more »
The Politics of the Child Tax Credit
In the American Rescue Plan, passed at the outset of the Biden administration, Congress greatly expanded the Child Tax Credit (CTC) to virtually all families with children, and paid it out monthly for the first time. … The expanded Child Tax Credit is expensive, but it is an investment. Economists […] Read more »
Positive Views of Supreme Court Decline Sharply Following Abortion Ruling
Americans’ ratings of the Supreme Court are now as negative as – and more politically polarized than – at any point in more than three decades of polling on the nation’s highest court. Following a term which saw the Dobbs v. Jackson ruling ending the federal guarantee of the right […] Read more »
Ron DeSantis Is a Test Case
The fact that Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, is favored to win re-election is a clear warning to those worried about declining support for democratic institutions and values in the United States. The prospect of DeSantis’s re-election in November suggests that under certain circumstances the American electorate will tolerate, […] Read more »
The shadow stalking Democrats’ improving numbers: Can polls be trusted?
Over the past two months, FiveThirtyEight’s average of congressional ballot polling has shifted from a two-point Republican advantage to a half-point Democratic one. Its average of approval polling for President Biden has gone from Biden being underwater by 17 points (that is, his “disapprove” percentage is 17 points higher than […] Read more »