The Wisconsin race for governor has no clear leader, while Democratic gubernatorial candidates hold the edge in Michigan and Pennsylvania, according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS in the three key states. … Across the three states, issues surrounding the economy and inflation remain the top concern for the […] Read more »
Pollsters Try to Learn From Mistakes of 2016 and 2020 Elections
Pollsters this year are taking a range of steps to try to improve the accuracy of their surveys, after significantly understating support for Donald Trump and other GOP candidates in the past two presidential elections. Strategists and pollsters in both parties are worried about whether the steps will work. … […] Read more »
Ohio: 1 point separates J.D. Vance, Tim Ryan in Senate Race
Only one point separates Republican J.D. Vance and Democrat Tim Ryan in the race for U.S. Senate in Ohio among registered voters. The two are tied among those who say they will definitely vote in November’s election. The Republicans are well-positioned, though, to retain the Ohio statehouse. Republican Governor Mike […] Read more »
Why Am I Seeing That Political Ad? Check Your ‘Trump Resistance’ Score.
… In the run-up to the midterm elections next month, campaigns are tapping a host of different scores and using them to create castes of their most desirable voters. There are “gun owner,” “pro-choice” and “Trump 2024” scores, which cover everyday politics. There are also voter rankings on hot-button issues […] Read more »
The gory details about how modern polling really works
This week, I reported a story for The Economist that uncovered some very troubling details about pre-election polls being published by Center Street PAC, a new and self-described “non-partisan” super PAC that has pledged support for Democrats in key Senate contests. … The upshot to this narrow story about Center […] Read more »
Republicans retain advantage over Democrats on key issues of the economy, crime
More Americans, as well as registered voters, trust the Republican Party over the Democratic Party when it comes to handling the economy, crime, inflation, and gas prices, according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll. Republicans’ advantages on these issues have not changed from ABC News/Ipsos polling two months ago. On […] Read more »