Control of the US Senate will be decided next week in cross-pressured states where most voters disapprove of President Joe Biden’s performance but also express unfavorable views about their state’s Republican Senate nominee. Public polls show Biden’s job approval rating is consistently below 50%, and often well below that, in […] Read more »
American Democracy on the Eve of the 2022 Midterms
Two years ago, America’s democracy was tested when Donald Trump refused to concede Joe Biden’s presidential win, a violent mob stormed the Capitol to try to prevent the certification of Biden’s victory, and a majority of congressional Republicans, including two-thirds of House members, voted against certifying the result. Public confidence […] Read more »
Senate control is likely to come down to these four states
You know Election Day is closing in when the kids are trick-or-treating. And with the costumes out, the picture for the Senate is clearer than ever. It is pretty clear from the polling that control of the Senate will likely come down to four races: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania. […] Read more »
One week to go: What history tells us about how the House races are shaping up
Historical analysis cannot tell us what will happen next, but it can provide a rough baseline for our expectations. With one week to go before votes are cast, the 2022 midterm elections are shaping up to be in line with most of the midterms conducted two years after the incumbent […] Read more »
Economy Is Top Election Issue; Abortion and Crime Next
Among the policy issues being debated and discussed this election year, the economy leads in importance to Americans. Nearly half of U.S. registered voters, 49%, say the economy will be extremely important to their vote for Congress. But abortion and crime are nearly as prominent; 42% and 40% of voters, […] Read more »
Two Years After Election Turmoil, GOP Voters Remain Skeptical on Elections, Vote Counts
Two years ago, shortly before the 2020 presidential election, Republicans’ trust in the nation’s election system had eroded considerably. Today, with the midterm elections approaching, widespread GOP distrust persists – and in some cases has deepened. A majority of registered voters who support Republican candidates for Congress in their districts […] Read more »