… A president sitting at 42 percent approval, with “strong disapproval” outweighing “strong approval” by 10-12 points is not going to win the national popular vote. But, that doesn’t mean he can’t win the Electoral College. And, in assessing the Electoral College reality, there’s no better place to check into […] Read more »
What Voters Want in 2020
A few months ago, I did my best Frank Luntz impression with four different focus groups of swing voters in states that will help decide the 2020 election. This was a project for the second season of The Wilderness, a podcast I host about how the Democratic Party can win […] Read more »
Fox News Poll: Races tighten between Trump and Democrats in Wisconsin
The Democratic advantage over Donald Trump has narrowed in potential head-to-head matchups, according to a Fox News Poll of Wisconsin voters. In addition, a plurality opposes the Senate removing President Trump from office following impeachment by the House, even as a majority disapproves of the job he is doing as […] Read more »
A historic gender gap is possible in 2020
If President Donald Trump loses in 2020, it will be at the hands of women. While the chance of a woman winning the Democratic presidential nomination for 2020 aren’t too high at this very moment, female voters seem keen on kicking Trump to the curb. An examination of recent CNN […] Read more »
Wisconsin: 2020’s Ground Zero
As 2019 closes out, it may be worth looking to one of the states that is expected to play an outsized role in next year’s presidential election: Wisconsin. The Badger State was truly decisive in 2016: While it’s easy to lump it in with Michigan and Pennsylvania as the three […] Read more »
Three reasons why the Democrats’ Blue Wall crumbled
The story of why Democrats lost in 2016 has been dissected by journalists, activists and politicians since the moment Donald Trump won, with an array of explanations offered for what went wrong for the party. But one indisputable fact is that had Democrats won in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, President […] Read more »