… If there are two key themes in the election so far, one is Trump’s ability to enrage; the other is his ability to exceed expectations. The disregard of liberal and conservative elites for working and middle class voters has manifested itself in a consistent underestimation of the anger, resentment […] Read more »
Trump’s Path Runs Through the Rust Belt
If there is a path to the White House for Donald Trump, it almost certainly will follow roads like Interstate 75, 80, and 94 that rumble through the big battleground states across the Rust Belt. Large Rust Belt prizes such as Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin would be indispensable […] Read more »
The 2011 Survey That Eerily Predicted Donald Trump
White men without a college degree are the most likely demographic to support Donald Trump. But who could have foreseen that they would reject the GOP to side with a political outsider who built his campaign around economic anxiety, racial resentment, and a bleak assessment of America’s future? Well, how […] Read more »
The Myth of the ‘Reagan Democrat’
When pundits claim Donald Trump can win the presidency, they often evoke a fabled political species: “Reagan Democrats.” “Are Reagan Democrats becoming Trump Democrats?” wondered CNN commentator Jeffrey Lord last fall in The American Spectator. “I think there’s a lot of Reagan Democrats waiting to vote for him,” declared MSNBC’s […] Read more »
Donald Trump’s Secret Weapon: Blue-State Voters
The Republican establishment typically has a dependable ally in the primaries: the blue-state Republicans. They’re relatively affluent, well educated, moderate and secular, which usually makes them a natural partner to offset the more populist, religious and conservative outsider candidates who often rally the party’s Southern base. But this year, blue-state […] Read more »
No, Trump won’t win votes from disaffected Democrats in the fall
… Democrats worry that Trump’s focus on economic protectionism and opposition to trade deals could turn Democrat-leaning rust belt states into swing states, giving the Republican nominee an unexpected path to the White House in 2016. We can learn a little from students of Western European politics here. CONT. Charlotte […] Read more »