Donald J. Trump has almost no plausible path to the White House unless he wins Florida, a rapidly changing state where Hispanic voters could deal a decisive blow to his chances. But a new poll, by The New York Times Upshot/Siena College, suggests that Mr. Trump is keeping his hopes […] Read more »
God Loves Donald Trump. Right?
… As of mid-August, a Pew survey found Trump beating Hillary Clinton 63-17 among white religious conservatives. Evangelical Christians may not approve of Trump, but they are among his strongest constituencies in this year’s campaign. The Christian right has found common ground with Trump’s less devout supporters on a wide […] Read more »
Hillary Clinton Is Getting Surprisingly Little Extra Lift From Blacks and Hispanics
The conventional wisdom holds that sweeping demographic shifts propelled Barack Obama to the presidency. So here’s a simple question: Why haven’t these demographics swept Hillary Clinton to a big polling lead and a smooth glide to victory? Donald J. Trump, after all, has alienated just about every growing demographic group […] Read more »
Tracing Donald Trump’s Rust-Belt Route
Any path Donald Trump might take to the presidency inevitably leads through the Rust Belt and industrial Midwest—the places the Republican nominee describes as “rusting and rotting” war zones of manufacturing decline. … Since the parties’ conventions this summer, the candidates and their running mates have held nearly 40 campaign […] Read more »
Trump’s Main November Foe Isn’t Clinton, It’s Demographic Change
To win the White House, Donald Trump may need to turn back the clock and make the American electorate look more like it did in 2004 than in 2012. … So, why are so many polls close right now? One reason: Some pollsters foresee working-class whites making up a larger […] Read more »
Why do white men love Donald Trump so much?
The rise of Donald Trump has put the focus on one particular demographic: men. … Of course, part of Trump’s appeal among white men has to do with their racial attitudes. But part of the story may also have to do with the economy — and especially the stagnant incomes […] Read more »