A mother of four is running for U.S. Senate. Polls show her well ahead. Then, just days before the primary election, allegations surface that she stalked her ex-boyfriend and harassed her ex-husband. Her campaign implodes. That would probably be the story in almost every other state, but Monica Wehby, a […] Read more »
The Known Unknowns
… Ultimately, the two sides are counting on two very different things happening this fall. Republicans are counting on the national political environment to sweep the GOP to victory. … Democrats, meanwhile, are counting on making this an “all politics is local” election. … So, who’s right? No one can […] Read more »
Turnout alone won’t mean a win
Last week I began discussing, some might say attacking, a meme heard with increasing frequency: Persuasion is a waste, it’s all about turnout. … I argued that while mobilization remains vitally important, putting all of one’s chips on that number would mean certain defeat for Democrats. In competitive states and […] Read more »
Voter Enthusiasm Down Sharply From 2010
A majority of U.S. registered voters, 53%, say they are less enthusiastic about voting than in previous elections, while 35% are more enthusiastic. This 18-percentage-point enthusiasm deficit is larger than what Gallup has measured in prior midterm election years, particularly in 2010 when there was record midterm enthusiasm. CONT. Jeffrey […] Read more »
No, undecided voters don’t break for the challenger
For as long as we can remember, some political folks have subscribed to a theory, and it is this: Undecideds break for the challenger. … Wrong. According to a Fix study of 25 competitive U.S. Senate races held over the last four elections, undecideds actually appear to break more for […] Read more »
Midterm Election Turnout Isn’t So Different From Presidential Year Turnout
Spend enough time around pundits and you’ll hear somebody say, “It’s all about turnout.” Who shows up to vote, and those voters’ demographics, is the great mystery of any election. The conventional wisdom is that the demographics of the voting pool are friendlier to Democrats in presidential years than they […] Read more »