… The Democrats’ core problem in recent congressional elections has been simple: Their voters don’t show up. … Overcoming that gap is the great challenge for Democrats this year, which is why they’ve launched an audacious strategy that, if it works, could change the way future congressional campaigns are waged. […] Read more »
Persuasion or turnout in campaign
Lynn Vavreck is a brilliant political scientist from whom I’ve learned a great deal and from whom I still hope to learn much. However, I do hope Democrats do not take to heart her recent Upshot piece entitled, “The Myth of Swing Voters in Midterm Elections,” in which she argues, […] Read more »
Bursting the Democrats’ Midterm-Turnout Bubble
The Democratic midterm turnout problem is no secret. Young and nonwhite voters tend to stay home in off-year elections, leaving the electorate older, whiter and more Republican than in a presidential election. … Strong turnout operations can help Democrats at the margins. The Democratic turnout problem, however, is not marginal. […] Read more »
Why the Democrats’ Turnout Problem Is Worst in North Carolina
… North Carolina might be the state where Democrats suffer the most from low midterm turnout. The state is divided between older, culturally Southern and conservative voters, and younger, more diverse and more liberal voters, especially around the Research Triangle and Charlotte. In presidential elections, those two groups fight nearly […] Read more »
Democrats seek to reshape midterm electorate along lines of a presidential year
… Democrats are banking on the belief that they can better identify potential supporters, motivate them and get them to the polls — in essence, reshape the midterm electorate to make it look more like the electorate in a presidential year. To try to do so, they will for the […] Read more »
Democratic Senate Prospects and the New Black Voter
Democrats plan to turn out thousands of African-American voters this fall, in an effort to hold the Senate majority. The challenge is that some of them aren’t yet registered to vote. Which begs the question, after opportunities to elect and re-elect the first black president, why would an African-American choose […] Read more »