Spend enough time around pundits and you’ll hear somebody say, “It’s all about turnout.” Who shows up to vote, and those voters’ demographics, is the great mystery of any election. The conventional wisdom is that the demographics of the voting pool are friendlier to Democrats in presidential years than they are in midterm years, and that it’s the other way around for Republicans. …
But turnout isn’t nearly as important as D.C. wags make it out to be. The demographics of who voted in 2012 vs. 2010 were different, but that difference didn’t make much of a difference. The reason Republicans won more votes in 2010 — and likely will in 2014 — is that voters wanted Republicans in office, not that minorities and young people didn’t turn out to vote. CONT.
Harry Enten, FiveThirtyEight