The Buckeye State, long recognized as perhaps the nation’s premier presidential swing state, deserves its status. In the 30 presidential elections since 1896, Ohio has correctly picked the winner 28 times. Ohio has company at the top though — it beats out another top presidential swing state, New Mexico, by […] Read more »
Court Case Can Put House Further Out of Reach for Democrats
… Last week, the Supreme Court agreed to hear the case, Evenwel v. Abbott. It’s about whether voting districts need to have equal populations (as they do today), or whether they need to have equal numbers of eligible voters: adults who are citizens and who haven’t been disenfranchised as a […] Read more »
The Mysterious Number of American Citizens
Many Americans believe that someone, somewhere in Washington, must be in charge of tracking who is and who isn’t a citizen of the United States. Apparently, so does the U.S. Supreme Court, which just accepted a voting rights case that turns on the government’s ability to count the number of […] Read more »
Likely voter models and projecting turnout
Returning to the Ipsos approach to likely voters, we have set up a method that allows us fine grained control over our model to match the actual turnout rates. … Of course, the perceptive polling connoisseur would ask, “great you can match to turnout, how do you know what turnout […] Read more »
A Different Look at Generations and Partisanship
… Generations typically encompass a cohort of people born over a 15- to-18-year span; for example, the Baby Boom generation includes people born between 1946 and 1964. As a result, the formative political experiences of the youngest and oldest members of each generation can differ considerably, and these differences may […] Read more »
This Is How Fast America Changes Its Mind
… Social change in the U.S. appears to follow a pattern: A few pioneer states get out front before the others, and then a key event—often a court decision or a grassroots campaign reaching maturity—triggers a rush of state activity that ultimately leads to a change in federal law. We […] Read more »